2011 Fantasy Football Metrics "Mad Money"...Sometimes, You Can Afford to Miss it...

One of my more "staple" shows to watch on TV, is CNBC's Mad Money -- hosted by Jim Kramer. I watch CNBC more in a given week, than I have watched ESPN and the NFL Network combined in 2011 in total so far. I prefer to get my football info from other sources, but for business and Wall Street news...it's CNBC.

The funny thing about me and Jim Cramer is, the last few times he made a stock recommendation and I considered/acted on it...so far, I've been burned/am sitting with a loss. Most recently (a few months back), Cramer laid out the case for Ford (F) stock off of a potential major earnings beat, with another big beat potentially coming, and then combining that with the General Motors IPO that was about to happen...and he saw Ford going from approx $16 per share to $20+ in short order. I was already predisposed toward Ford, as I love what the CEO is doing by rejecting the Governments bail out and that they are also paying down debt...plus making a bunch of profit. I felt good about Ford, and then with Cramer's passionate support...I went for it. I still have my $16 shares, and some $15 shares, and some $14 shares, and some $11 shares (current price $11+). I still have hopes for my Ford investment, but so far it hasn't worked out...

I am somewhat mad at Jim Cramer because of this, although I respect the heck out of him, and the work he produces. I would never call his show and shout "ba-ba-ba-ba booyaa", some of the theatrics I could live without. What I really respect -- Cramer, no matter what you think of him, does his homework. Cramer, presents compelling, well-thought out, easily laid out to understand stock/business theories. Cramer has more experience than I do in the stock game, and does 100x the homework daily. However, the last 3 times I can remember, that I was moved to buy a stock, mostly due to the case Cramer made for it -- Merck, Annaly Mortgage, and Ford...I lost money (real and on paper currently).

The problem with me remembering the "downs", and blaming Cramer is -- I could have sold Merck at a gain...but I held in, and the economy tanked in 2009; and the rest is history. Annaly, I sold in a panic drop...but now the stock is well ahead of where I originally bought it (plus has a huge dividend, that I mostly missed out on the last 2 years). What I remember as "downs", had opportunities to payoff ultimately...but I missed it. The other problem with remembering all the "downs", and blaming Cramer is...I tend to forget all the "ups" Cramer has come through with for me (and probably a ton that I ignored). I tend to remember the losses/wrong calls...and I get a little gun shy of acting on the next recommendation.

The same thing is likely to happen with our readers and followers. Something we project in the 2011 (or 2012, 2013 etc etc) Fantasy Football season, is bound to go wrong.

It's going to happen. We are going to be wrong about a specific thing. It just happened today. I recommended to clients for a few weeks -- a play on Peyton Manning as an early 6th-8th Round Fantasy Football Draft take for a QB-2, as a risk/reward gamble on future valuation. I gambled that Peyton would miss a game or two, but to be back by the time the various QB bye-weeks started hitting...and thus creating a huge trade chip value. Now it looks like Peyton quite possibly may never play football again. Looks like we gambled, and lost. We had sound logic, and a compelling business case, but the circumstance turned...now some clients are caught in a small trap on it -- do they dump Peyton now and grab a waiver something, or sit and wait to see what happens, knowing it's a dead roster spot for at least a week or two or more? Fortunately, we have a good/long track record with many clients...they realize we have a methodology, and have more wins than losses. However, the losses still sting none the less.

If you follow all of our recommendations, thank you...and prepare to be wrong along with us on occasion. I rarely remember our "smart" picks. Having Jamaal Charles and Hakeem Nicks in the top-5 at their position in the 2010 preseason, when no one else did...a home run last year. Having Kevin Kolb in our top-5 QBs last year, turned out to be not-so-genius...but the "Kolb crime" may have been that it was just slightly ahead of its time. We were high on Jordy Nelson last year, and he finally broke through last year...in the NFL playoffs. We looked foolish in the regular season. We didn't feel Arian Foster would break-out in 2010, and we started him with a low projection in Week-1 (he only had 3 TDs Week-1).

All of that to say, we hope you enjoy our work this year, and we appreciate your support...it's been amazing. We wish you all good luck, and we hope that the larger majority of our recommendations, and research will help you...but sometimes it won't land...or not right away. Sometimes the theory will need time to pan out, but we all tend to get panicky...especially early in the season, especially if we lose in Week-1.

My good friend Gordon Gekko once told me, "never get emotional about a stock". My best advice for Fantasy Football, "never get emotional about a NFL player"....because we all will want to, especially in Week-1. The 2011 Thursday Night Game between the Saints and Packers...we are going to be so football starved/crazed, we are going to over analyze it and over-think it (like every year). Those that did that last season, got burned...
Last season the Saints played the Vikings in the opener, and the following occurred in that game for Fantasy Football:

Pierre Thomas outdueled Adrian Peterson

Brett Favre was kinda OK, and Drew Brees was a little under-whelming

Visanthe Shiancoe became a "must have" TE

Lance Moore and Percy Harvin were barely noticeable

Look back above, because after that week...none of that was really true again for Fantasy Football 2010. ESPN/NFL Network/Fantasy websites all went insane over Shiancoe the rest of the next week. Don't get over emotional about this Week-1, or this Thursday Night Game. Take advantage of those that do.

Jim Cramer does an amazing thing on his show each night...he does "The Lightning Round". "The Lightning Round", is where callers call in and throw out a real stock live on the air...and Cramer has to respond with an opinion. I know it's not scripted, because just tonight Cramer had to apologize because he was not knowledgeable about a caller's stock, and he didn't offer an opinion...however, most times he knows the stock cold. Hundreds and hundreds of stocks, and Cramer knows nearly all of them off the top of his head...not only the name, but who they are and what they do...and he offers a quick synopsis of what his feeling going forward is. When you step back and consider what he is doing, it is amazing.

"The Lightning Round" would be rather boring if the callers called in and asked something like, "hey...what about Ford, ticker symbol (F)?" -- then off that question Cramer responds, "well it's a good company, but cars aren't selling well in this economy, but the economy might come back soon, but unemployment is still bad". The show would suck if Cramer came out and gave you non-opinions, or non-studied opinions you could hear anywhere. Cramer makes a definitive call on every stock that is "chucked" at him.

We make a definitive call on hundreds of players preseason, and then we are tracking and adjusting with the trends and news during the season each week. Sometimes Cramer makes a bad call or two out of his dozens of projections each day...sometimes it's a miss for just tomorrow or sometimes for a month...or maybe things shift, and he misses it completely.

We just finished projecting 450+ players for Week-1...I guarantee you, that some of them will be off. We're just trying to be more right than wrong, by a 70-30 factor, and we try to learn and adapt as we go. We use a computer-based, Moneyball/Freakonomics/Stock Market-esque system to try to take emotion out of our Fantasy Football decisions, and even the computer is wrong sometimes...but it's easier, psychologically, for us to yell at the computer.

Good Luck in this 2011 Fantasy Football season. Enjoy the ride. We hope that we can help in some way, or at least entertain.

In the famous words of Apollo Creed..."ding, ding"....It's time for some football!

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