In no particular order, trying to avoid the
obvious as best as possible...
-- The "sleeper" play of the week may
be the Kansas City-Defense. Obviously,
they are going to catch some attention slowing
down Aaron Rodgers this past week, but it
seems they are being overlooked for Week-16
based on the first conversations I've had this
week. The Chiefs have held 3 of their last 4
opponents to 14 points or less, and are
averaging nearly 4 sacks per game in that same
span. Facing an under-whelming Carson Palmer
this week, probably without Darren McFadden,
at home in the cold...they may be the ticket
this week over more notable defenses like --
SEA, NYJ, CHI, and PHI.
In the last 5 weeks, look at this schedule of
QBs the Chiefs have faced...and the low yardage
outputs:
-
WK-11 = 234 yards, 2 TD/0
INT...Tom Brady
-
WK-12 = 193 yards, 1 TD/1
INT...Big Ben
-
WK-13 = 133 yards, 0 TD/3
INT...Caleb Hanie
-
WK-14 = 181 yards, 2 TD/0
INT...Mark Sanchez
-
WK-15 = 235 yards, 1 TD/0
INT...Aaron Rodgers
-- We will all get held hostage
concerning any Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy
Football plays for Week-16. If the Giants lose
at 1pm, the Eagles motivation level rockets to
the extreme (to the good)...with the next piece
of their comeback puzzle, as a must win at 4 pm
versus Dallas. If the Giants win early, the
Eagles are officially 100% done for 2011.
That Giants W/L outcome to us, means
everything for Fantasy Football...if you are the
owner of Michael Vick. If the Eagles
season is over by 3:55pm, why risk further
injury to your franchise player? At a minimum,
he won't play long...nor run a bunch (or at
all). However, if this turns into an Eagles
quasi-playoff game...we think Vick will go crazy
(good) for Fantasy Football. You could not have
two more opposite extremes to consider....
Most all NFL games are at 1pm Saturday, so if
you are going to wait on Vick...you have to have
a 4pm backup plan, in case he is a late scratch
(or even if you fear an early hook). The only
QBs potentially available in your league as a
3:55pm alternative...Tavaris Jackson,
Alex Smith, and Caleb Hanie.
The Eagles motivation level also changes the
Fantasy Football perspective of the Dallas WRs,
Felix Jones and Tony Romo. An unmotivated
Eagles-D has to make you feel decent about any
of those Cowboys options, but an incredibly
fired-up Eagles-D...and Miles Austin
is in trouble of an Eagles shut-down of another
#1 WR as they have been shown to do several
times this season. Romo will be solid, but maybe
not as likely to pile on the big stats.
-- The NY Jets-Defense should be
playing all out in their virtual playoff game
for both NYJ and NYG. More times than not this
year...the Jets-D suppresses opposing QBs
to weaker Fantasy output. Not good news for Eli,
nor Hakeem Nicks covered by Darrelle
Revis...although Revis-fear hasn't been as
scary the last few weeks.
-- The last time the Raiders played
Oakland, Darrius Heyward-Bey was
good/solid...but we broke that game down for him
play-by-play, and the KC defenders were like a
proverbial glove on him. DHB just had a big
Week-15, but not so sure there will be a follow
up against KC this week.
-- Denver has been very easy to throw
upon this year, but also have been safe to run
against as well...the whole Denver-D
thing is a bit overrated of late. C.J.
Spiller at home this week, should be
fine...like it was this past week. Ryan
Fitzpatrick may be a viable play as well.
-- We love betting against Blaine
Gabbert, so hopefully you stowed away the
Titans-D for this week!
-- The Patriots have been a pretty
solid run-defense, but seeing Reggie Bush
get 25 carries this past week is the more
important factor for us...so we'll continue with
Bush again this week. The Pats have given up a
ton of yards in the air (just not to Tebow) this
year, so Brandon Marshall should have a
nice FF Week-16 as well.
-- I've loved the Seattle-Defense
ride we've been on the last few weeks, but I
would be very nervous with them facing the 49ers
this week. Not that the 49ers are an
offensive-juggernaut, but more it is
fear/respect that Alex Smith just doesn't
turn the ball over. Seattle is a very low
probability for turnovers/pick-6 this week...and
that is scary in the Fantasy Football title game
this week. After their great run of late (best
FF scoring defense over the past 5 weeks), it
seems insane to yank them...but I'm going to
yank them if another viable alternative exists.
-- Your guess, is as good as ours on
what Percy Harvin will do in Week-16.
After a 6-week run as the single best Fantasy
Football scoring WR, Harvin had 0.7 FF points
this past week. Why every Vikings play is not to
him; I have no idea...but three catches and 1
rushing attempt in Week-15, is almost like
Leslie Frazier is trying to lose on purpose.
Some of that is Fantasy-bitterness for the
losses Harvin caused me this week, but some of
it is reality...and we've noticed it all season
-- Leslie Frazier makes us scratch our
heads more than any other coach in the NFL (now
that Todd Haley is gone).
-- We've been on the wrong side of
Demaryius Thomas for three weeks, completely
scared of the low count/inefficient
pass-attempts of Tim Tebow...but the
recent trend doesn't lie, and facing Buffalo
this week should only help his cause.
-- LeGarrette Blount has been
all over the place this season, but more
Fantasy-useless as of late. A few weeks ago
Carolina shut him down, but the Panthers
run-defense is so porous...it's hard not to
start him this week.
-- We would choose Kahlil Bell
over Marion Barber, if forced to choose
between the two for Week-16. I am not hopping on
a Bell-bandwagon; we just think that the Packers
game is going to get out of hand...and thus
favor Bell's style more (better in the passing
game). If you think, that the Bears will hang
with the Packers, Barber would be the play.
Actually, my choice would be to avoid the
situation completely.
-- We liked Kevin Walter as a
sleeper last week, which he did very little
stat-wise...but note that he did have a TD
called back for stepping out of bounds on the
sidelines and re-entering (it was a close call).
Walter is the only real Texans non-RB main
option, and is something to consider as a
WR-3/Flex for Week-16.
-- The Steelers-Defense have
been squashing opposing RBs Fantasy Football
output for several weeks now (after a not
typical bad-start to the season). Steven
Jackson facing PIT at home, with Kellen
Clemens at QB does not look favorable for
Jackson in Week-16...nor does it favor
Brandon Lloyd.
-- Torrey Smith is now
consistently (finally) being targeted more than
Anquan Boldin, and is becoming a must
Fantasy start. Smith has a TD in each of his
last two games, and has crept into the top-20
among all Fantasy Football WRs in PPG on the
year after his Week-15 performance.
-- It's well established that the
Vikings-Defense is the worst against the
pass in all of football. In the last 11 games,
they have allowed 20 TDs and have just 2 INTs.
Rex Grossman has to be considered as a
serious play against them in Week-16, especially
if you have a normally good QB in a potentially
horrible Week-16 match-up -- i.e. Eli vs. NYJ.
If Grossman is going to go big through the
air, then you have to consider Jabar Gaffney
as a play this week as a WR-2, or Flex. Gaffney
has been on a roll of late, in the past 5 weeks
(minus the NYJ game where he was
shutout)...Gaffney has 8.5 pass-targets, 1.8
red-zone targets, 6.0 receptions and 91.0 yards
per game (with his lowest game at 72 yards in
that span).
-- We pointed it out last week...that
Nate Washington seems to have "something"
with Jake Locker. Whether it's luck or
not, Washington's stats/TD output is on fire
with Locker...this week Locker came in for some
PT in the 2nd-half, and of course hit Washington
for a TD. Washington with Hasselbeck has been
dull, and not fruitful for Fantasy purposes the
last several weeks (Hasselbeck seems to prefer
Damian Williams). On the surface,
Washington looks like a definite Fantasy start
because of this production the last few
weeks...but if Hasselbeck is starting, I'd use
another viable option at WR over Washington if
available (or hope Hasselbeck gets yanked).
-- Peyton Hillis had 99 yards
rushing this week, but it took 26 carries. We
respect workload, but we also respect the
opposition...and this week Hillis faces the
Ravens in Baltimore, and we want no part of that
if we can help it.
-- I want to have a renewed interest in
Jackie Battle for Week-16 vs. OAK, but
seeing the new coach give Thomas Jones 15
carries to Battle's 10...keeps me on the
sidelines if there are better options. If I had
to choose between the two, I'd go Battle for
Week-16.
-- Jordy Nelson carried me
through many weeks this season, but if I have WR
depth...I'll bench him this week. I don't know
what that was versus the Chiefs, but my
impression of Jordy as a great #2 WR, but not a
#1, is more solidified after seeing his
embarrassing performance without Greg
Jennings against the Chiefs in Week-15. He
now is now a Fantasy Football question mark
versus the Bears in Week-16.
-- This is now 7 games in a row, with
Mike Wallace under 70 yards in a game.
Wallace is still in the Fantasy top-5 WRs for
PPG, but it's been very soft the last 7 games.
This week against the Rams, may provide some
Fantasy relief for Wallace...if Ben can get
healthier. It's not crazy to consider him as a
sit, where you have WR depth.
-- Michael Crabtree has been
performing well against weaker defenses, and
more stifled by better ones...the Steelers
locked him up in Week-15, we expect Seattle to
do the same in Week-16.
===============================================
PRIOR WEEK's ideas...
-- If you are QB desperate, we would
take a chance on Jake Locker vs. IND (and
then JAC the following week) if came down to it.
We think Locker is very overrated overall, and
will be figured out quickly in the NFL...but for
two upcoming games against bad teams, with
Locker's extra boost of rushing stats...he makes
sense for those in need short-term.
-- Perhaps it's just too small of a
sample-size to consider, but when Jake Locker
has relieved Matt Hasselbeck twice this
season...Nate Washington has exploded
with 7.5 receptions, 122.5 yards, and 1.5 TDs
per game in those two games. Washington also has
an amazing 21.3 Fantasy Football PPG output,
28.9 PPR PPG in those two games.
Damian Williams has just 1.5
receptions per game from 10.5 targets in those
same two games, an incredibly bad 14.3%
connection rate.
-- You may know what our favorite thing
of Week-14 was...the potential emergence of
Keiland Williams. Should Maurice Morris
and Kevin Smith be ruled out, you may
finally see what we have been talking about
since the preseason. If you watched this game,
you saw glimpses of what we've claimed all
along...a monster-sized RB with speed, agility,
and great hands. Prompting even the TV
commentators to say, "why did the Redskins
get rid of this guy?" That's baby-steps
toward what the comments should be -- "why
isn't Williams starting over Morris?" If
Smith is ruled out, this is something to
consider vs. a soft OAK run-defense.
-- If somehow the Cowboys lose on
Saturday, and the Giants lose their Sunday early
game...suddenly the Eagles-NYJ Sunday afternoon
game is gigantic for the Eagles, with a breath
of divisional life left. An Eagles team with a
pulse makes Michael Vick a little better
of a Fantasy start for Week-15. As well, like
last week, we like DeSean Jackson down
the stretch with Vick playing...as Vick helps
DeSean pad stats for his pending free-agency
(just a tin-foil on the head theory).
-- This may seem crazy, but the Arizona
Cardinals-Defense is a Fantasy Football play
to consider this week. In their past six games,
the Cardinals have held opponents to just 15.5
offensive PPG, while posting 3.0 sacks per game
in that span. The Cardinals haven't been pulling
a bunch of turnovers, but this week they get a
flimsy Browns-offense led by Colt
McCoy/Seneca Wallace...at Arizona.
-- If you are pressed for an RB for Week-15,
in a deep-roster league...Donald Brown
may be something to consider. Brown has scored a
TD in 2 of his last 3 games...as well as TDs in
4 of his last 8 games. Brown (and all the Colts
RBs) was shut-down by the Ravens this past week
(which is to be expected), but gets the more
giving Titans run-defense this week. Brown is a
no-go against the Texans the following week.
-- C.J. Spiller was quiet
this past week, despite our lofty expectations.
Part of the issue was that the Bills got down so
quickly, that they abandoned the run and went
heavy with their awful passing game. The
Chargers also dominated time of possession,
holding the ball for 35+ minutes. Spiller faces
the much tougher against the run
Dolphins-Defense this week, and there was a
bit too much Tashard Choice on the field
then we had hoped in Week-14. Spiller is a
"maybe-start" Week-15.
-- Ben Tate is a consideration
at RB for the next few weeks, as he faces
CAR-IND...two of the worst run-defenses in the
NFL. Tate might see a few more carries than
normal as the run should be the primary game
plan option, plus the Texans should win (maybe
win big), and Foster does not need to be
over-worked at this stage of the season.
-- Joe Webb is not our favorite
QB prospect, but is on the radar as a Week-15
fill-in...and maybe one with an "upside" pop.
Webb is not a very good passer, but he likes to
run...and that means a lot in Fantasy-land.
Facing the weaker defense of the Saints at home,
on a fast track/dome...Webb could be
interesting.
-- For many with WR depth, Antonio
Brown always seems to be a semi-unsure Fantasy
start each week. Brown has averaged 11.4 FF PPG
(16.7 PPR PPG) over the past 7 games. Brown has
posted 5.3 receptions, 94.7 yards and 0.3 TDs
per game in that 7 game span. Brown should be a
steady start for most, but if Charlie Batch is
at QB...no way. For that matter, the fading Mike
Wallace (of late) is a no-go without Big Ben as
well.
-- Since their Week-8 BYE, Matt Ryan
has been among the elite QBs for Fantasy
Football scoring. In the past 6 games, Ryan has
averaged 20.4 Fantasy Football PPG (4 pts per
pass TD), with 298.5 yards passing and 2.3
TD/0.7 INT per game. With Jacksonville and New
Orleans ahead, Ryan should be able to carry you
through the playoffs toe-to-toe facing the
big-boy QBs.
-- Given the notes above on Matt
Ryan, the Jags-Defense may have been
spectacular against Josh Freeman this
week...but is likely to get torched at
Atlanta/Ryan this week.
-- We have no interest in any Browns RB
for the rest of Fantasy Football 2011. Too many
RBs, to little talent, too much confusion
between Hillis, Hardesty, Ogbonnaya.
-- The Falcons-Defense took it
on the chin for the 1st-half against the
Panthers, and then shut them out in the
2nd-half. The Falcons have been a kinda-decent
defense of late...and they get Gabbert/Jags
this week. The Falcons-Defense could be a
play for those scraping the bottom of the barrel
for a defensive play this week.
-- When Torrey Smith gets 7+
targets in a game (6 times), he is averaging
15.6 Fantasy Football PPG (19.9 PPR PPG). Smith
has produced 4.5 receptions, 86.8 yards, and 1.0
TDs in those 6 games. Smith is a feast-or-famine
WR...for those with an underdog team, facing
"bully" teams this week (or next), and you need
a potential rocket-boost for scoring...you have
to consider starting Torrey.
-- For the past two seasons, Felix
Jones has never had back-to-back games
rushing for 100+ yards...or back-to-back games
scoring a TD. Jones against TB this week seems
juicy, but we all seem to get Felix Jones
amnesia all the time; for some reason. For his
entire career, he has been wildly inconsistent,
and overrated.
-- Demaryius Thomas was very
quiet in this game, before popping stats/a TD
late. Two great Fantasy games in-a-row, but I
would be frightened to death to count on him in
any given week. That Tebow passing-game is too
inconsistent to rely upon any WR for Fantasy
purposes.
-- Andy Dalton has been beat-up
(statistically) the last few games, as the
Bengals schedule turned nasty with
SEA-TEN-PIT-BAL-CLE-PIT-HOU. Now Dalton gets STL
in the dome, followed by ARI at home. This
should be a big statistical game for Dalton this
week, bigger than he has seen in a while.
-- We were keeping an eye on Brad
Smith this week, to see if he would have a
follow-through from his latest spike in
performance as a starter. Smith had 0 receptions
for 0 yards on 5 targets in Week-14.
-- We want to believe in DeAngelo
Williams, but he just isn't seeing the ball
enough to get us overly excited. He has scored 3
TDs in his last four games, but is only
averaging 9.7 carries per game this season...and
9.6 carries per game in his last 6 games. Facing
the Texans this week, it's probably another
no-go again with Williams.
-- Michael Crabtree has
averaged 9.0 pass-targets, 6.0 receptions, 83.3
yards and 0.3 TDs per game over his last 4
games. We want to believe (however, we think he
is wildly overrated), but he is staring down a
match-up with PIT-SEA ahead...teams with much
better DBs than he has been facing.
-- The Steelers-Defense has been
completely shutting down the run in the last
seven games. Frank Gore (Week-15) and
Steven Jackson (Week-16) ahead, may be a
bench for those with other RB options.
-- If Greg Jennings is out, we
are unsure what this will mean with Jordy
Nelson. Nelson will draw better
coverage...but should also see more
playing-time/targets (he doesn't play but about
half the offensive plays in each game). James
Jones may be a bigger winner in this than
any Packers WR.
-- Dez Bryant with 2 targets,
and 1 catch (on broken coverage), in a
mega-important game...is frightening beyond
words. For a supposed elite NFL WR, it's
shocking to see that Bryant has no 100+ yard
receiving games in 2011...and has just one for
his entire career. The most yardage he's ever
produced in one single game with Tony Romo
is 90 yards receiving.
==============================================
Last Week's notes....
-- We sung the virtues of a Josh
Johnson Fantasy Football play last week, and
he responded with a solid game. He actually
looked better passing than we had expected.
Johnson is potentially a fairly legit throwing
QB, that also has tremendous foot speed. He is
not Tom Brady as a passer, but he might
be somewhere in the range of
Tebow-Vick-Newton for Fantasy purposes, due
to the 40+ yards rushing per game he can post.
If Freeman is out again, and this is your
first week of the Fantasy playoffs...and you are
staring down playing a team with Brady, Brees,
etc...and you skated in with Big-Ben, Dalton,
Flacco...you might consider Josh Johnson
vs. JAC this week, as a dice-roll for a big
upside.
-- C.J. Spiller has looked as
good as, or better than, Fred Jackson in
his two recent games as the starter. Hopefully,
you jumped on this bandwagon with us a few weeks
ago, but we still see him available in some
10-team leagues, and on the bench in many
others. Spiller should be a green-light Fantasy
Football start in most instances, and is showing
flashes of Chris Johnson/Jamaal Charles
type abilities. He scored a TD this past week,
but was a near-miss from scoring three in the
game, and setting the Fantasy-world into a
tizzy. Instead, just a mild buzz right now.
-- We have no, none, 0.0% interest in
Golden Tate...despite Sidney Rice
being out, and the fact that Tate has scored a
TD in each game the last two weeks. If Tate was
so good, why did Doug Baldwin walk in
off-the-street and take over his job as a slot
WR? How does the 5'11 Tate, translate to a
capable/similar fill-in for the 6'4 Sidney
Rice's role? I have to trust a small, slow,
historically NFL unproductive, backup WR to step
up big with Tavaris Jackson at QB? We
couldn't trust the output week-to-week of the
much more talented Baldwin and Rice...why will
Tate be different?
-- You can't touch Demaryius Thomas
off this big game. The Vikings had no healthy
CBs, and thus we think that this higher-output
Tim Tebow passing game was an aberration.
Eric Decker and Thomas are fine WRs, but
this Tebow passing game will not lend itself to
multi-TD/100+ yard games with any consistency.
Thomas scored a TD in his Week-7 2011 debut,
setting off excitement...then caught 4 total
passes in the following four games. No
confidence here.
-- We have been touting Brandon
Saine back to the preseason. Not claiming he
is a for-sure NFL star, actually we grade him as
a C to C+ prospect coming out college. The
biggest problem in our system analysis is that
he didn't perform that big in college. Strictly
looking at him physically, he is an A-level
prospect.
Looking at Saine vs. Ryan Grant
(with/if James Starks out)...Saine may
take 10+ carries per game, and see 5+
pass-targets per game coming up. Especially,
something to consider if the Packers blow-out
OAK-KC-CHI ahead. He may be one of those sudden
Fantasy Football playoff RB darlings.
-- Looking ahead...Week-15, the
Atlanta Falcons-Defense vs. Blaine
Gabbert is a tasty match-up. Atlanta is
likely available now in most leagues.
-- The Seattle-Defense was
already a Fantasy Football play that was heating
up, but for the potential of facing Tom
Brandstater this week, and Caleb Hanie
next week (and maybe Colin Kaepernick in
Week-16) -- this is now white-hot.
-- Marion Barber is an obvious
pickup off the Matt Forte injury, but don't be
shocked when/if Kahlil Bell splits duties
with him...or at least is the 3rd-down RB. We
are not high on Bell, but he will factor in
there to some degree.
-- We have been banging on
Jermichael Finley for weeks, guiding that
his Fantasy-worthiness is waning to a possible
benching...and then he responds with a huge game
in Week-13. We are still skeptical, as this is
now two very good/great games this year...with
10 mediocre-to-poor ones this season. Likely,
three GB blow-outs ahead with OAK-KC-CHI, which
may mean more a little more rookie D.J.
Williams in the 2nd-half of games to get
needed experience now that Andrew Quarless
has been lost for the season due to injury. We
are very wary of Finley the next few weeks.
-- Assuming Michael Vick is
starting this week, then I am "out" on Riley
Cooper. We believe this was a Cooper-Young
thing, and cannot assume the same nice Cooper
output with Vick-Cooper.
-- Santana Moss has returned
from his broken hand, and jumped right back into
a heavy workload for the Redskins...9.5
pass-targets per game, and 2.0 red-zone targets
per game. Moss's output has been low the last
two games(4.5 rec with 35.5 yards, no TDs), but
the Skins have faced tougher pass-defenses in
the Jets and Seahawks. NE-NYG-MIN ahead may
provide a huge upside. Moss is usually one of
the most underrated players in all of Fantasy
Football/NFL. We see him getting the
cold-shoulder in many traditional leagues, and
we think that is a mistake the rest of the way.
-- The Denver-Defense has
Caleb Hanie minus Matt Forte this
week, making them a hotter play than they
already were.
-- Since the Frank Gore injury
problems started in Week-10, Gore has averaged
55.8 total yards per game in that span; with no
TDs scored. In those 4 games, Gore has posted a
feeble 5.6 Fantasy Football PPG (6.3 PPR PPG).
-- Devin Aromashodu had 15
pass-targets this past week, please do not buy
into Aromashodu. For that matter, don't get
overheated on Christian Ponder yet
either. We like Ponder, but one big game against
a weak Denver pass-defense is not a trend to
count on going forward. Most of Ponder's big
yards, and TDs, came off of Percy Harvin's
magic of taking something small and making it
awesome. Ponder and Aromashodu are 2011 Fantasy
Football trap-doors...it's crazy to now think
that the big passing game has arrived for the
Vikings just yet. Furthermore, Aromashodu has
very suspect talent...as we've railed on for two
years.
-- The Cleveland Browns-Defense
has been a lock-down of opposing QBs all season,
partially because teams can run all over them.
That should be a major, major concern for those
with Ben Roethlisberger starting for
Fantasy Football playoffs 1st-Round this week.
-- You know we love Kevin Kolb,
and his Week-13 win versus Dallas looks
good...bit it was a mixed bag as we watched on
tape. Kolb showed moments of brilliance, and
also plenty of head-scratching moments. As much
as we like Kolb, SF-CLE-CIN is not a great
opportunity for a huge upside...especially CLE.
-- Another Fantasy Football
trap-door, is Dan Orlovsky. Going down
31-3, and then plowing a bunch of stats against
prevent defenses, and WRs turned CBs, is not a
sign of guaranteed future positive returns.
Orlovsky is OK, but facing BAL-TEN-HOU
ahead...not really interested. With the Orlovsky
drop to reality, so will drop receivers
Pierre Garcon (who we love), Reggie
Wayne, Austin Collie and Jacob Tamme.
We also love Donald Brown, and he is
becoming the go-to RB for the Colts...but that
BAL-TEN-HOU schedule means likely under-whelming
output. Possibly, he's a play against TEN.
-- Marques Colston came back
from injury with two great games in Week 6 & 7,
but in the last 5 games...Colston has averaged
5.0 receptions and 69.4 yards per game with NO
TDs. Colston has a lowly 6.9 Fantasy Football
PPG (11.9 PPR) in that 5-game span. Colston is
great, but the Saints WR scene varies
week-to-week. Lance Moore has 5 TDs in
that same 5-game span that Colston has none.
-- Peyton Hillis makes sense on
the surface, but a schedule of PIT-ARI-BAL lends
itself to only a Week-16 play vs. ARI...but also
with the risk of Montario Hardesty being
back. Hillis's name/memory is bigger than his
actual feeble output in his last 11 games he has
played (2010-11). A 52-yard catch on broken
coverage, salvaged a Hillis Fantasy Football
scoring-nightmare result this past week.
-- Our computer scouting has been anti-Michael
Crabtree since the word go. However, you
have to respect his recent output surge in 2011.
Facing Arizona in Week-14, Crabtree had 7
catches for 120 yards against the Cardinals in
Week-11.
-- Our computer data was exuberant
about LeGarrette Blount in Week-13 versus
Carolina, as nearly every RB has crushed the
Panthers run-defense. Blount responded with an
11 carry for 19 yard rushing game, looking like
he was running the ball while carrying a
building on his back. Very slow, and easy to
bring down. Blount was a hot play heading into
the Fantasy playoffs, especially for Week-16
against Carolina...that is all in question now.
Honestly, we cannot figure out Blount/TB play
calling all 2011 season.
-- We are watching DeMarco Murray
closely. In our computer scouting system, Murray
looked like trouble as a NFL runner...having
weaker rushing grades on lower yards per carry
metrics. Murray did project as an excellent
3rd-Down RB, in our system. His hot rushing
stretch of late was contrary to anything we had
shown as possible in our system, but in his last
3 games...66.0 rushing yards per game, with a
lower 3.4 yards per carry....and no TDs. Murray
visually looks great on tape, and has had some
fantastic 2011 games...but our computer keeps
shouting "caution".
-- Dexter McCluster is being
bandied about as a "sleeper" for Week-14 (and
beyond). So, a player who has
under-performed/under-whelmed for two
seasons...is now a hot sleeper because the Bears
batted a "hail-mary" pass into his stomach, in
the end-zone? Had that play not occurred,
McCluster would have had his 11th (of 12) games
played on the season with fewer than 7.0 Fantasy
Football points scored in a game. His 2011
season high Fantasy point output in a game
before this lucky game = 9.3 (15.3 PPR).
-- We were extremely high on Andre
Roberts this preseason, and that has mostly
been a bust for 2011. Our computer scouting
analysis is very high on Roberts, as we see him
as very similar to Antonio Brown.
Sometimes our computer player projections are
just a bit ahead of its time. Early on in 2011,
Roberts was mostly a dud, but in the past 5
games Roberts has started taking over as the
Cardinals true #2 WR...averaging 4.0 receptions
and 59.6 yards per game on 6.8 pass-targets per
game. Roberts, like Brown, is a better PPR
WR...due to limited TD probabilities in a game.
-- Another reminder, looking
ahead...The Titans-Defense faces Orlovsky
and Gabbert in Weeks 15-16. The Titans-Defense
has held 4 of their last 6 opponents under 17
offensive points in each game, scoring 8.1
defensive Fantasy PPG.
-- We love Torrey Smith, but the
feeble passing game of Joe Flacco this
year, and an easier BAL schedule of run-defenses
ahead likely means more Ray Rice...and
less of Torrey Smith. We pointed out for
weeks that Anquan Boldin has been a growing
Fantasy Football nightmare, and we think he also
gets flushed for the next couple of weeks as
well...as well as Ed Dickson, and
Dennis Pitta too.
-- Brad Smith has posted 5.5
receptions for 74.5 yards per game on 8.5
pass-targets per game in the past two weeks as a
starter...translating to 10.6 Fantasy Football
PPG (16.1 PPR PPG). The schedule ahead is
favorable (SD, MIA, DEN). Smith is also a threat
to run a few plays at QB near the red-zone; he
may be an excellent flier for a Flex/WR-3 to
finish the season.
===============================
-- C.J. Spiller's
line against the Jets may have looked mediocre
(7.0 FF points, 10.0 PPR), but we were very
impressed watching this tape. Spiller ran tough,
plenty of action off-tackle, showed speed bursts
(that we all know he has). The Jets played a
nice game against the run, which is not unusual.
TEN and SD upcoming may not be so lucky. This is
the Bills chance to get an extended look at
Spiller, and it may be special in the next two
weeks. MIA-DEN in Weeks 15-16, not as hot...but
not bad.
-- Peyton Hillis
is potentially the ultimate fool's gold this
waiver period. In the next four games Hillis
will face = BAL-PIT-ARI-BAL. Two no-starts for
sure against BAL, and maybe no good versus PIT.
Which doesn't even address Hillis's poor running
this season...or the potential for Montario
Hardesty or Chris Ogbonnaya to steal
workload. Hillis is playing for an evaporating
pile of free agent money (due to his own
"issues")...so we should see a nice effort from
Hillis, but very dicey for solid Fantasy
Football output against BAL-PIT.
-- Very quietly
Doug Baldwin toils away in anonymity. He has
had a very solid season, and has two favorable
matchups ahead with PHI and STL. Something to
look at for a flex or WR-3 start the next two
weeks.
-- Mike Wallace
has been fantastic all season, but his output
has slowed a bit...including a disaster against
KC on MNF. Nothing has changed, his target
levels are stable, and his schedule ahead is
fine. The smart move ahead is to play him and
not worry, how can you bench him? (unless you
have an incredibly deep bench).
-- Scott Chandler
had season/career highs with 6 catches on 7
pass-targets versus the Jets this week. The 6
catches and 7 targets this week, follows the (at
the time) career/season highs with 71 yards, 5
catches (tie) on 6 targets in the week prior.
With no Donald Jones,
Naaman Roosevelt, and Fred Jackson
(all with injuries), Fitzpatrick has turned even
heavier toward Chandler. The Bills have decent
matchups ahead with TEN-SD-MIA-DEN, much of it
in ever colder weather...and thus the big TE may
continue to be more prevalent in the passing
game. We know Fitzpatrick loves him in the
end-zone already.
-- We've been touting
the Pats-Defense for weeks, for this
moment ahead...match-ups with
Painter-Grossman-Tebow-M.Moore in the next 4
weeks.
-- Andy Dalton
would be a Fantasy Football play for the QB
desperate, especially looking ahead to the
playoffs. Dalton makes the most sense as a
QB-2/emergency backup for the Fantasy Football
playoffs, as he faces STL-ARI in Weeks 15-16.
Dalton is dicey versus
PIT-HOU upcoming. Since the strength of
opponents has amped up (last 3 games), Dalton
has posted 4 TDs/5 INTs and a 56.6% Comp Pct
with 14.0 Fantasy Football PPG (4 pts per pass
TD).
In that same Dalton thought
process, Cedric Benson is a no-go versus
PIT-HOU upcoming, but sweet against STL-ARI in
Weeks 15-16.
-- The last of
Lance Moore available as a free agent will
end this week. Moore has posted 4 TDs in his
last four games. We have hit on for a few weeks
now -- Moore is healthy now, and used to be a
Brees top target in 2009. Playing in this high
pass-attempt offense of the Saints, Moore is the
often the open alternative when defenses commit
too much to stopping Jimmy Graham and
Marques Colston.
-- Santana Moss
will be neutralized this week against the Jets,
but then a decent run of NE-NYG-MIN. Moss is
always under-appreciated and undervalued, and if
floating around available in smaller traditional
leagues...you may want to snatch up for the
final 3 games of the season.
-- The San Diego
situation is a mess, and we have no definitive
way to play it for Fantasy Football. We assume
many of them will now shut it down mentally. No
reason to push Antonio Gates anymore from
a franchise perspective, why not limit his snaps
and preserve any career longevity he may
have...Gates may dry up very quickly for Fantasy
Football purposes. Ryan Mathews logic
would dictate another minor injury ahead, and
mysterious time missed. We assume Vincent
Jackson and Philip Rivers will go
through the motions/shut-down the rest of the
way, we would be very wary of them.
-- Shane Vereen
has been given 15 carries in the past two games,
and is the best "lottery ticket" RB that we see
out there right now. Danny Woodhead has 9
carries, and Stevan Ridley has 4 carries,
in that same two game span. Only BenJarvus
Green-Ellis has more carries (34) than
Vereen has in the last two weeks.
We've been beating on this
for 4-5 weeks. Vereen is the most talented RB on
the Patriots roster and may become relevant by
seasons end. The things to consider is --
assuming the Pats wrap things up early, they
more turn things over to Vereen for a full game
in either Week 15 or 16.
-- There is something
that many of us need to admit, Jermichael
Finley isn't that good for Fantasy Football
2011. Finley had an awesome Week-3 with 7
catches for 85 yards and 3 TDs. He has been
almost useless outside of that. Minus that one
huge game, Finley has had only one other game
over 10.0+ Fantasy Football points (trad.
scoring). Outside of the Week-3 game, Finley has
posted a horrible 5.5 FF PPG (8.4 PPR PPG).
One TE that we would
consider over Finley in the next few weeks --
Brandon Pettigrew. The Lions are already
prone to shootouts...now they are desperate, and
will be lacking on defense ahead. Pettigrew has
a very weak schedule of pass-defenses ahead with
NO-MIN-OAK-SD. Pettigrew has been up & down this
year (and overall mediocre), but has averaged
7.5 pass-targets per game to Finley's 5.0 this
season.
-- The
Titans-Defense has been fairly solid all
season. A Week 15-16 schedule of Curtis
Painter and Blaine Gabbert makes them
a defense to consider sitting on now for those
knowing they are headed to the playoffs.
Fitzpatrick-Brees for the next two weeks is not
as savory...
-- If you followed us
with Toby Gerhart this past week, it was
predicated as a one-week play...but it might
turn into another play again this week. Gerhart
ran like a tank versus Atlanta this past week,
and AP may be out for one more week.
-- This is where we
part ways with Donald Brown. We got what
we wanted last week, and now we are not
interested with NE-BAL-TEN-HOU ahead. Joseph
Addai is lurking as well. We're releasing Brown
this week for more intriguing gambles from
waivers.
-- Jacksonville has
had an excellent/underrated defense all season,
especially amazing due to the strength of
offenses they have faced. In the next two weeks,
the Jags-Defense gets Rivers-Freeman (who
would have those QBs would be a favorable
match-up in the beginning of the season?).
-- Keep an eye on
Brandon Saine, and how he is used the next
few weeks. Saine is the most physically gifted
RB left on the Packers roster...but is raw, and
a rookie. As was James Starks about this
time last year.
-- Someone has to be
the Lions RB, so Maurice Morris makes
sense versus NO-MIN-OAK-SD ahead, but you know
we are watching Keiland Williams. Morris
makes way more sense at this point.
-- It is
impossible to ask Kyle Orton to walk into
a strange team, and produce against CHI-NYJ-GB.
We said it in April 2011, and several times all
season, and re-iterate...this late season
schedule wipes out all KC offensive personnel
for Fantasy Football usefulness. Orton's arrival
changes nothing.
-- Jonathan
Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are
worth looking at if needed versus TB this week.
They also get TB again in Week-16.
-- Beanie Wells
has everyone all jacked up, but he is facing a
brick wall coming up the next two weeks in the
DAL-SF run-defenses. Wells crushed the St. Louis
Rams this week, like almost every RB in the NFL
has done this season. Again, we say, you have to
take that DeMarco Murray vs. STL outbreak
a few weeks ago with a grain of salt...and the
Wells wreckage this week vs. STL is another
reason why.
