Larry Fitzgerald is good, we get it. However, I am worried about what happens when he gets teamed with Matt Leinart (assumingly) for fantasy football in 2010.

I looked back at the Fitzgerald/Leinart performances since 2006 (Leinart arrives, plays right away) to see if there are any clues about 2010.

Leinart/Fitzgerald have only been paired together 11 times (Leinart starts/major playing time) since 2006.

• 2006 = had the most “samples” (7), six full games and another where Fitzgerald was injured and how low stats.
• 2007 = Leinart started first 2 games, then virtually disappeared.
• 2008 = none
• 2009 = 2 more games, Week 12 fill in vs the Titans and final game of season (Kurt Warner rest game).

I was worried when I examined the 2 games in 2009; Leinart “targeted” Fitzgerald an average of only 6.0 times in the 2 games. Kurt Warner looked to Fitzgerald an average of 8.8 times per game in 2009. Almost 33% less passes thrown to him by Leinart. Not great for compiling fantasy football stats. However, it is tough to judge on 2 games – with one of them a meaningless Week 17 game.

In 2007 Leinart went to Fitzgerald 11.0 times per game (2 games), as did Warner at 11.0.  Oddly enough they matched again in 2006 -- Leinart went to Fitzgerald 8.8 times per game (6 games), Warner the same at 8.8. So, it looks like the Game Plan (conscious or subconscious) over the years is for Cardinal QB’s to get a healthy dose of Fitzgerald “targets”. The “targets” comparisons were comparable, but what jumped out looking over the past few years was the actual production of Fitzgerald with Leinart vs Warner.

From 2006-2009, Larry Fitzgerald has played in 60 NFL games; here is a view of Fitzgerald’s best productivity with the different QB’s over those 60 games:

Games in which Fitzgerald has gained 100+ Yards in his career

• 16 = Total (27% of all career games)
• 1 = Total with Matt Leinart starting at QB (9%)
• 15 = Total with Kurt Warner starting at QB (31%)

Games in which Fitzgerald has scored 2 TD’s or more (Fantasy Gold…) in his career

• 8 = Total (13% of all career games)
• 0 = Total with Matt Leinart (0%)
• 8 = Total with Kurt Warner (16%)

I’m worried that Leinart doesn’t have “it” like Warner….and that’s going to affect Fitzgerald’s “elite” fantasy football WR status in 2010.

Top fantasy football WR Scoring for 2009 (Games 1-15)

• 13.7 = L.Jackson, PHI
• 13.6 = A.Johnson, HOU
• 12.8 = Fitzgerald, ARI
• 12.6 = Austin, DAL
• 12.3 = Wayne, IND
• 11.6 = Marshall, DEN/MIA
• 11.5 = V.Jackson, SD
• 11.3 = White, ATL
• 10.6 = S.Smith, NYG
• 10.3 = Rice, MIN

Fitzgerald at 12.8 fantasy football points per game, likely sticks him in the 1st round of The 2011 Fantasy Football Draft. Early 2nd Round at worst.

Fitzgerald’s fantasy football scoring when paired (11 times, in 4 seasons) with Leinart = 8.2 fantasy football points per game.

We are looking at this somewhat from a “Draft Value” perspective (as well as “Draft worthiness”). All the magazines and conventional wisdoms are going to say “Fitzgerald is a 2010 # 2-3 overall WR”, translating to a late 1st or early 2nd Round fantasy football Draft pick overall. But, that’s based on him scoring around 12 fantasy football points per game again. Fitzgerald on name, and past performance is going to get drafted 1st or early 2nd round for sure.

However, if Fitzgerald’s performance is coming down with Leinart (which is a safe bet to some degree, vs. what Warner can do) – if he moves down toward 11 fantasy football points per game, he is a top 4-8 overall fantasy football WR maybe. Not a 1st Rounder for sure then. Another tick down on fantasy football scoring to 10 points per game (which is still nice) – but then he is not a 1st or 2nd round value. Maybe late 2nd, but more like early/mid 3rd Round. 3rd Round value, 3rd possibly 4th Round 2010 production – but you know he is going to be drafted by someone in the first 2 Rounds of The 2011 Fantasy Football Draft. If you move him to your 4-5-6th (or lower) ranked WR on your board, you are essentially saying you are “not drafting Larry Fitzgerald” -- because in most every (normal) league he is gone 1st or 2nd Round.

Leinart is going to have a negative effect on Fitzgerald. You know it and I know it. That’s somewhat a compliment to the greatness of Kurt Warner – and a smack at Leinart. There is an “unpredictable” fantasy football risk element with Fitzgerald this year that he hasn’t had the last two seasons.

Fitzgerald’s history with Leinart is not good. Leinart, as a QB, is not great (to me going forward, or NFL real performance yet). Even if they pick up the “chemistry” a little there are other issues in the way. Anquan Boldin is not there any more to help take some pressure off the other WR’s. The running game is still a little suspect. The Cards were 28th in total rushing yards in 2009, and had the lowest amount of attempts in of any NFL team. A weak running game is going to allow defenses to sit on the (to this date) unreliable Matt Leinart. Or, if Coach Whisenhunt commits more to the run, will that take some stat production away from the WR’s? With Warner at QB you knew it was going to be a “shootout”, with all the WR’s as beneficiaries.

Just a 10% drop in fantasy football production, and Fitzgerald is not a 1st Round overall selection lock anymore. A slip toward a 15-20% drop from “normal”, and he is not worthy of a 2nd or possibly 3rd round selection. Which all seems insane. Fitzgerald has been a fixture at the top of the WR draft boards for a couple years now – but we are going to have to get over that and realize the risk for how high Fitzgerald will likely be drafted is not a good Draft value proposition in 2010. There will likely be a couple more fantasy football stat productive options at WR available early on (if you want a WR early on), or a few equal to Fitzgerald’s 2010 production a few rounds later – if you buy the drop of him being a 10-11 fantasy football point per game scorer in 2010.

 

 

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