We can all assume that we all know the names of the players that will be taken in Round 3 and 4 in most “normal” drafts. They are all typically very good players – and all we are really arguing there is, “What order they should be taken in”?

What I really want to know going into my Draft, and what gives fantasy football owners a “real” edge, is – tell me about players that are being Mock Drafted in the 10th round or later that may have a potentially real/big impact for me. Even better, tell me about players no one is even drafting that would be a valuable 14-15th round low risk/high reward selection. THOSE are “sleepers”.

It’s going to be a multiple page journey, but stick with me as I discuss a little bit about Anquan Boldin’s upcoming outlook – and how that relates to a player I haven’t hardly seen taken on any preseason 2010 Mock Drafts. A player that may equal Boldin’s numbers in 2010.  First Anquan Boldin.

ANQUAN BOLDIN

It’s the first thought we all had when we heard Boldin was traded….”Boldin’s a very good WR, he’s been traded to a good team with a huge WR void. So Boldin is going to be huge in 2010 (for fantasy football and reality)”. I agree he is an excellent player and a nice pickup for the Ravens from a talent standpoint (what they paid for it is in question…).

But, when I see how far Boldin has moved up the draft list among WR’s preseason 2010 – it caused me to go a little deeper on Boldin’s Metrics. Boldin did not have a great 2009, good but not great. Barely in the top 25 amongst WR’s in fantasy football points per game in 2009. So is his rise up the preseason draft boards based in reality, or in emotions?

Let’s look at the Metrics:

2009 WR fantasy football SCORING (games 1-15) *Rec/Rush only, no KR
13.6 = A.Johnson, HOU 13.1 = D.Jackson, PHI 13.0 = Moss, NE 12.8 = Fitzgerald, ARI 12.6 = Austin, DAL 12.4 = Welker, NE 12.3 = Wayne, IND 11.6 = Marshall, DEN 11.5 = V.Jackson, SD 11.3 = R.White, ATL	10.6 = S.Smith, NYG 10.5 = Ocho Cinco, CIN 10.5 = Colston, NO 10.3 = Rice, MIN 9.9 = Holmes, PIT 9.7 = C.Johnson, DET 9.6 = Ward, PIT 9.5 = Sims-Walker, JAC 9.5 = Mason, BAL 9.5 = S.Smith, CAR	9.5 = Jennings, GB 9.0 = Driver, GB 9.0 = Boldin, ARI 8.9 = Hicks, NYG 8.7 = Meachem, NO

Boldin’s fantasy football PPG avg (full season/16 games) the last 4 years:

• 8.6 PPG = 2009
• 13.7 PPG = 2008
• 11.4 PPG = 2007
• 10.3 PPG = 2006

Last 4 Seasons Avg = 10.3 PPG

I see the argument formulating already. “2009 was a fluke due to injuries, and the previous 3 seasons are more typical Boldin”. Actually 2009 was his most games played (15) since 2006 (16). In 2007 and 2008 Boldin played only 12 games each season. Boldin also missed both of this past season’s playoff games with knee and ankle injuries. Boldin has been hampered with nagging injuries the last few seasons, and he is not getting any younger (will be 30 this season).

“But with the Ravens, Boldin is going to flourish!”……

No doubt the Ravens needed WR help. Boldin is a great WR, but will he be an fantasy football “superstar” again? To be worthy of where he is on preseason rankings (10-15th WR overall), he will need to score 10+ fantasy football PPG and stay fully healthy in 2010.

Over the past 4 seasons with the Cardinals, Boldin has averaged 10.3 fantasy football PPG. That is playing most all of his games on a very pass-happy team with a Hall-of-Fame level QB. Boldin is now switching over to a more run oriented team with a very good young QB in Joe Flacco, but Flacco is not on Kurt Warner’s level as of yet. Let’s look at a couple of Metrics to compare the Ravens and Cardinals philosophies in the past couple seasons….

2009 Total Passing Attempts

• 510 = Ravens (25th most in the NFL)
• 594 = Cardinals (3rd most in the NFL)

2009 Total Rushing Attempts

• 468 = Ravens (7th most in the NFL)
• 365 = Cardinals (lowest in the NFL)

Only 84 less passing attempts, but that’s 14% less attempts/opportunities. That would (likely) in some way affect WR scoring a little? Or maybe you don’t buy that, perhaps you think “well, he will get the majority of looks even if lower attempts”. Which I think is a fair statement. But will the Ravens philosophy of “targeting” affect Boldin’s fantasy football productivity some?\

2009 Percentage of completions to WR (vs. to RB/FB or TE, or other)

• 82.9% = Cardinals
• 63.9% = Ravens

The 2009 Ravens threw much less than the 2009 Cardinals in general (and years prior). When the Ravens did throw the ball, it was more likely to NOT go to a WR versus the Cardinals who relied heavily on WR’s. The Cardinals had 120 more completions to WR’s than the Ravens did in 2009 (50+% more).

The Ravens also seem to have a better TE core that they have favored more than the Cardinals system -- with 55 completions to TE’s in 2009 (17% of all completions) versus 23 for the Cardinals (6% of all completions).

The Ravens by design, and possibly forced some by weather, run more and pass less. Those Flacco passes are more likely to RB’s and TE’s than what Boldin is used to in the Cardinal system.The Ravens best WR the past couple years, Derrick Mason, may be a decent comparison to what an Anquan Boldin 2010 season as a Raven might look like.

Derrick Mason vs. Anquan Boldin this past season

	BOLDIN	MASON
Yards Per Game:	68.3 ypg (1,024 yds)	64.3 ypg (1,028 yds)
TD’s Per Game:	0.27 TDpg (4 TD’s)	0.43 TD pg (7 TD’s)
FF’s PPG:	9.0 fantasy football PPG	9.5 fantasy football PPG

Derrick Mason vs. Anquan Boldin the past 3 seasons:

	BOLDIN	MASON
Yards Per Game:	74.7 ypg	65.7 ypg
TD’s Per Game:	0.62 TD	0.35 TD pg
FF’s PPG:	10.9 fantasy football PPG	8.6 fantasy football PPG

Boldin has averaged 2.3 more fantasy football points per game than Mason over the past 3 seasons. But what if Mason was inserted into the Cardinals offense for those 3 seasons with 10-15-20+% more WR activity? More to the point then on Anquan Boldin – what if Boldin was one of the main WR on the Ravens offense for the past 3 years? Would Boldin’s 10.9 fantasy football per game scoring average be closer to 9.0 like Mason’s? Which is a big question, because if Boldin is going to stay up over 10.0 fantasy football PPG in 2010, he is worthy of considering in that 10-15 overall WR range in the upcoming draft. However, if Boldin is running out of gas…if this past season’s 9.0 (Games 1-15) fantasy football scoring per game avg (which includes a fluky rushing TD, or then it drops to 8.6) is closer to his real, going forward, production – only now on a team that throws less…is he worthy of a 2010 fantasy football Draft “reach” or is he more a “risk”. I am moving into the risk camp.

When you take age (30), the style WR he is (over the middle, tough, hasn’t played a full season in 3 years), and now with a (possibly) more restricted pass offense that utilizes RB’s and TE’s more than the system he has played in for the past years with Kurt Warner – then I’m not sure the 3rd or 4th Round for Boldin makes sense versus other WR options available then (at any position) and/or what similar fantasy football scoring WR’s may be out there in the following rounds.

All that, and then there is the schedule…..

Right now we show the Ravens about face the 9th most difficult Pass Defense opponents in 2010 (Games 1-15). Shrinking it to Games 1-14, it moves closer to the top 5 most difficult. The Ravens start out at the Jets, where # 1 WR’s don’t do well. Quickly followed on the road at Cincinnati, which is suddenly one of the more difficult Pass Defenses (FF wise) to face. A likely break against the Browns in Week 3, then back to the grind with a game at Pittsburgh. In the first 4 weeks of 2010, they have 3 tough road games. The first 10 games of 2010, the Ravens face 5 of the top 10 fantasy football Pass Defenses (we rate in 2010). Including 3 of the top 4.

Age, system, injury history/risk and strength of schedule – and I’m hopping off that early Draft move on Boldin. If he falls to me closer to the #20-25 overall WR, then I might have interest – but definitely not closer to the top 10 WR’s….which is where I think he is going to go. The hype may pull him into the top 10 in some Drafts as well.

What does that have to do with a “sleeper”?

One of the reasons why Boldin is in Baltimore and not in Arizona, I believe, is not Steve Breaston but is Early Doucet. That’s a sleeper. The 75th rated WR on one fantasy football 2010 preseason ranking I looked at….one of the only WR ratings I could find Doucet listed on; typically he is not even listed. Many Mock Drafters are playing the Steve Breaston angle; you may want to consider the Early Doucet angle.

Early Doucet is the Cardinals 3rd round pick out of LSU in 2008. Doucet was projected as first round draft pick material in 2008, before he ran a disappointing 4.59 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. Similar in size and similar in disappointing at the NFL Combine -- like Cardinal Draft pick Anquan Boldin years earlier (Boldin ran a 4.72 40-yard dash to drop his Draft stock). With Boldin only playing 12 games in 2007, questions about attitude, injury and contract status arose – making Doucet an attractive pick up. Even though they already had Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald with Boldin, the Cardinals still decided to use up a higher 2008 pick to add Doucet. That may have been “a tell” that Breaston is not the lock to replace Boldin in the Cardinals eyes.

Doucet played sparingly in 2008, but not totally invisible. His first game as a rookie (game 5 vs. Buffalo in 2008) he had 6 catches for 42 yards but didn’t do a whole lot after that with 14 catches total for the season. 2009 came and it didn’t start out great. Doucet did not play until Week 9, and played as the 4-5th WR on the Cardinal roster. Slowly moving up to 4th WR as the season wore on -- and then the breakthrough when Anquan Boldin was hurt for the playoffs, and thus Doucet arrived.

Somehow easily forgotten in the Cardinals shootout against the Packers in the 2009 playoffs round one -- Breaston was spread out with Fitzgerald, and Early Doucet assumed the Boldin role. Not Breaston. The results?

Early Doucet 2009-10 playoff performance:

1) Round One vs. GB (one of the top 10 Pass Defenses to face in 2009) = 6 catches (on 6 targets), 77 yards, and 2 TD’s

2) Round Two vs. NO (one of the top 5 Pass Defenses to face in 2010) = 8 catches (a Cardinals high 11 targets), for 68 yards and no TD’s.

Cardinals Playoff fantasy football total scoring for WR’s in 2 games (09-10) *No KR pts

• 28.1 = Fitzgerald
• 26.5 = Doucet
• 26.5 = Breaston
• 0.0 = Boldin (injured)

I re-watched the playoff game against the Packers, and Doucet looks like Boldin on the field. His 2nd TD in the Packer game was a dump-pass over the middle in which Doucet broke an arm tackle turned up and smashed into and off of the next tackler, then bolted into the end zone bouncing off a defender as he crossed the goal line.

Doucet is built more like Boldin, an over-the-middle/physical, 200+ pound WR. He is different in style than Steve Breaston, who is closer to 190 pounds, and built more like (what he was known for in college) a kick returner and more of a WR middle-deep threat. Breaston is a very good WR as well, and he will start/play a lot as well. However, the slot or possession or Boldin-type WR receiver spot for the Cardinals in 2010 will go to Doucet (in my strong opinion).

Final 4 games of 2010, 2 regular season and 2 playoffs – Cardinal WR fantasy football scoring per game *No KR Pts

• 11.6 = Fitzgerald
• 9.9 = Doucet
• 8.9 = Breaston
• 7.7 = Boldin

What will that mean for Doucet’s 2010 Draft value and/or 2010 productivity?

Currently (10-12 team leagues) you don’t see Doucet drafted very often in Mock Drafts (if he does it is very late). As the season approaches and Doucet is named as a starter -- I would assume, as the season draws near he may start to go 13-14-15th Round overall in 12 team leagues, and possibly still undrafted in 10 team leagues. He should stay a later round opportunity with very decent upside, with his value held down as folks lean toward Steve Breaston as the “new” Boldin.

While we don’t love Leinart, he is more of a “short game” QB. Doucet may be a nice dump off outlet/safety blanket for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if Doucet has 60-70+ catches, for 800+/- yards and somewhere around 6-7 TD’s for 2010. Putting him around a 7.0-8.0 fantasy football PPG WR in 2010. Not a superstar, but a definite value for a late/last round selection. Especially in a 14 Team league and/or Flex lineups.

If Leinart is better than expected, then the Cardinals passing system with Fitzgerald as a main threat to take heat off the other WR’s may lend itself to Doucet sneaking higher in fantasy football scoring PPG next season. This is an example of a great Draft value proposition, a low investment pick with possible high returns.

I think the Cardinals were very smart to drop Boldin, and get what they got for him. They sold Boldin like a “stock” at the perfect time. Leaving the Ravens holding the bag for the new contract demands. The Cardinals decided not to spend the money on an aging, injury risk WR when they had an identical WR sitting in house. You should consider the same approach as the Cardinals, and not over-reach for Boldin. If he falls to you around the 20th WR taken then great (but he won’t) other than that you should look to other WR’s later in the Draft that will likely have the same production as Boldin.

 

 

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