Lately I’ve been getting a lot of questions about the Chicago Bears WR
situation for Fantasy Football 2010. Everyone has a personal favorite to “break
out” of the Bears group. What is most interesting, within all my discussions, is
the “buzz” concerning WR Devin Aromashodu. Suddenly, Aromashodu is
ranking higher and higher in early preseason Draft boards.
I've been analyzing the Bears
WR stats from 2009 looking for any numbers that jumped out at me; I found one
that I thought worth sharing that led me to research a little deeper.
We know that the Bears are in attempting to re-vamp offensively in 2010. We
also know nothing wonderful happened via the Bears in 2009 Fantasy Football,
it was all disappointment:
-
Jay Cutler was expected to
be a major fantasy football producing QB, and after a hot start he fizzled
into a mediocre/bad fantasy football QB
-
Matt Forte single handedly
killed many fantasy football seasons as a top 5 Draft pick in 2009. He then
struggled to even be a top 25 RB in FF, much less the # 3-5 overall player.
Forte held most fantasy football owners hostage all year waiting for the
breakthrough that never came as the Bears spiraled in 2009.
-
All the young WR’s that
held allure/promise (Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester) had flashes
early on as Cutler played well, then they all faded with him down the
stretch. All of them faded late except one, Devin Aromashodu.
The Top 10 WR’s in fantasy football pts per game in Weeks 14-17 (4 games)
in the 2009 regular season (no KR pts):
- 17.9 = A.Johnson, HOU
- 16.0 = S.Smith, CAR
- 14.5 = D.Jackson, PHI
- 14.0 = V.Jackson, SD
- 13.1 = Devin Aromashodu, CHI
- 12.5 = Austin, DAL
- 12.4 = Rice, MIN
- 12.4 = Marshall, DEN
- 11.5 = White, ATL
- 11.0 = Gaffney, DEN
Top TD scorers among WR’s in Weeks 14-17 (4 games) in 2009 regular season
(no KR pts):
It is intriguing those final 4 games of stats. I wasn’t aware how well
Aromashodu stacked up down the stretch. There are some pretty impressive names
on that list. So, I went back to do more data research and watched some tape
on those last few games of the season to see if we did have a possible later
round fantasy football draft pick with superstar fantasy football potential, or
another “head fake”?
Put me down for the “head fake”.
Aromashodu has been a big fantasy football “whisper” WR lately, starting to
slowly rise up Mock Draft boards as a later round “sleeper” WR pickup. His 4
game explosion at the end of 2009, combined with no clear # 1option at WR for
the Bears – mixed with the high hopes of a “pass-happy” Mike Martz system….and
on comes Aromashodu.
Aromashodu was the “biggest” (tallest) Bears WR (6’2) target last year -- but
he is not as big in height and especially not as big in weight/bulk as the NEL
WR elites like Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Vincent Jackson, Sidney Rice, Larry
Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall etc. Aromashodu is a good 1-3 inches smaller and
10-25 pounds lighter than the elite “big” WR’s. He appears to struggle getting
off physical coverage because of his smaller frame (for a “big” WR). He
certainly is not going to muscle around defenders in the end zone.
Many who haven’t watched those Bears games are going to try to conclude (on
paper) that he is a “big” WR and scored a bunch of TD’s late in 2009….so do the
math, he is going to be the Bears Red Zone man in 2010. I don’t see that in him
at all. I see him more a 3rd down receiver that every so often might have a nice
fantasy football game on occasion, but not consistently.
His big claim to fame in the nice run at seasons end is in a meaningless Week
17 game vs. the Lions in which he scored 2 TD’s. He did have a nice game vs. the
Vikings Week 16 with 150 yards, including the game winning TD in OT. They were
OK games, but as I re-watched Aromashodu over those games I didn’t jump out of
my seat and think “what a big time WR”.
Apparently the Bears didn’t think so either, as they did not play him until
very late in the season after the other receivers were hurt. It wasn’t like the
Bears WR core was so awesome that it would be impossible to play earlier, yet
Aromashodu didn’t get a look until they had to have him play with all the other
WR injuries. Mike Martz is in now, and maybe that will change things? No, Martz
has early on praised Devin Hester and Johnny Knox as his starters and mentioned
both as possible “stars”. Aromashodu, Martz said, “he’s coming along nicely”.
Not only did the Bears not think a whole lot of him in 2009. His original
draft team (7th Round) in 2007, the Colts, didn’t either. If Aromashodu were
something special, not likely Peyton manning would let him get away. The Texans
(which you would think would be a fit for his style of game and theirs) took a
look at him and cut him. Followed by the Redskins who dropped him in 2008. Now
the Bears have him in 2009, and still in 2010.
Aromashodu was not even a college superstar. Playing on a couple very
good/great Auburn teams 2004-05. He only averaged about 2 catches a game and 42
yards per game in full Junior and Senior seasons playing. Only 8 TD’s in 24
career games played in those 2 years. He was not a dominant WR in college. He
has not been dominant WR in the NFL for 4 years, drifting from team to team.
Aromashodu seems to be a 1 catch for 22 yards one week, then 5 for 70 the
next, followed by a 1 for 8. Even in a Martz system, I don’t see Aromashodu as
anything more than a throw away pick in the very late rounds of a 14-team league
maybe. If you did pick him up, he would likely drive you crazy with one good
game (on your bench) and then a string of weak ones (some while you had him in).
When I utilize my late Round picks, I want great value or more I want someone
with Superstar potential – low risk/high reward. Devin Aromashodu is going to fake a lot of fantasy football owners in 2010. He is
going to be “reached” for much earlier than he should (maybe shouldn’t be taken
at all). I see him sneaking his way up into the 9-11th Round area of 12-Team
League preseason Mock Drafts.
You should be thankful as someone else is going to fall for it in 2010.
Make sure it is not you!
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