Data Note:
-
We do have partial games measured in fractions where we can account for it,
so a player who played 1st half and was injured and couldn’t play for 2nd
half, would have a 0.5 games played for that game.
-
This is just receiving (yards/TD/fum) and rushing; no kick return points.
|
|
Would a chemistry develop on a WR – as, perhaps, a basis for
improvement in 2010? Or, vice-versa – would WR performance
decline dramatically as the season went on?
I took the first 7 weeks of Fantasy Football scoring per game by a WR, and
compared it to the next 7 weeks (Week 8-14). I excluded the final 3 weeks as
performance can start to “wander” as the season ends and teams rest players,
etc.
We're calling it the the “7&7” Metric.
Below are the results of comparing the two 7 week periods; I excluded WR’s
who did not average over 5.0 points per game in 2009, as well as WR’s who played
sparingly (or not at all) in either part of the 7 week periods. A small move in
their numbers would create a big move in this number. I really wanted to see
WR’s who played in most/all of the games, and showed the most improvement (or
decline) with a “bigger” body of work for 2009.
Data Note:
-
Week 8-14 PPG vs. Week 1-7 PPG
-
This is based on “standard” Fantasy Football scoring (1 pt per 10 yards, 6
for TD, -2 Fumble lost).
-
There are NO Kick/Punt Return scoring in this (i.e. for Harvin, Britt,
Hester, etc)
|
|
TOP 10 RANKING -- MOST IMPROVED “7&7” Metric for WR’s
- +7.9 = Harvin, MIN
- +7.5 = Owens, BUF
- +6.8 = Meachem, NO
- +5.8 = Chambers, SD/KC
- +4.7 = R.Williams, DAL
- +4.5 = Marshall, DEN/MIA
- +4.4 = S.Smith, CAR
- +3.7 = Britt, TEN
- +3.6 = Holmes, PIT/NYJ
- +2.6 = Garson, IND & Boldin, ARI/BAL
Looking at this list, you can see some obvious “something changed” with the
team and performance changed (in this case for the better): When Ryan
Fitzpatrick started chucking to T.O. more mid-season; when Chris Chambers joined
KC mid-season; Brandon Marshall seems to have gotten his head screwed on
straight as the season went on.
Steve Smith numbers started to jump when Matt Moore took over. 13.9 PPG in 5
games with Moore, 7.9 PPG with Jake Delhomme…. +6.0 for Steve Smith with Moore
at QB vs. Delhomme. Watching tape on Matt Moore, he definitely favors (smartly)
Steve Smith. What scares me on Moore is he had some ill-advised throws to Smith
without considering the defenders around Smith. Moore avoided INT’s for the most
part, but watching the games back – there was a lot of luck on some of those
Moore-Smith connections. Skill or Luck -- either way it’s good for Smith going
forward to have Moore at QB it would appear statistically.
A couple receivers I see that had their performance shoot up as another WR
on the team went into decline (you will see them on a list in a second).
-
As the Robert Meachem targets and Fantasy Football scoring went up, Marques
Colston was declining some.
-
Miles Austin got off to a blazing start with those two 30+ point games in
Week 5 and 7, and still was great in the Week 8-14 – just not as much as the
first 7. As Austin came back to earth some, Roy Williams actually started to
heat up.
-
Santonio Holmes went up almost exactly as much as Mike Wallace declined. In
these cases (to me) they might be examples of defense focus going toward one
receiver, which in turn helped the other receivers. Also, could the
declining performance be due to one WR not being able to handle being a
“main” receiver – or just a simple QB’s taking what defense gave them?
The most intriguing on the list (and what I was looking for) are the
developing young receivers.
What is amazing about the Percy Harvin rise is his first 7 weeks of 2009 were
not bad…especially for a rookie. The next 7 he exploded at a 14.2 fantasy football PPG clip.
He started to run into the migraine issues Week 14, and was still decent after
that. Harvin with Favre in that offense again in 2010 with another years
experience and (possibly) without migraine issues and Harvin may be a Top 10 WR
vs. the 20-25 I see him typically rated or Mock Drafted.
Kenny Britt was one of the youngest receivers in the NFL. An OK start that
gradually picked up. Not only did he improve as the season wore on, the
improvement started to come on the “7&7” with the 7 games in the second half
with Vince Young. Young should be his QB all season in 2010. I see Britt listed
30-35th overall on early lists and Mock Drafts. Britt has no major WR
competition with the Titans, and has the size (6’3 218) and skill to break into
the Top 15-20, or better, for 2010 among WR’s I think.
Pierre Garcon’s Fantasy Football scoring improvement followed almost the same
exact number as Reggie Wayne’s declined. Watching tape back on late season Indy
games – I see the Garcon & Manning “connection”, they have “something” – as a
scout you can see it. The numbers seem to be verifying what my eyes saw:
| REGULAR SEASON |
Garcon |
Wayne |
| Week 1-7 of 2009 fantasy football PPG = |
6.3 |
14.0 |
| Week 8-14 of 2009 fantasy football PPG = |
8.9 |
11.1 |
| PLAYOFFS |
Garcon |
Wayne |
| Receptions = |
21 |
16 |
| Yards = |
251 |
164 |
| TDs = |
2 |
1 |
| FF Scoring PPG= |
12.3 |
7.4 |
| Top 10 BEST PPG WR (Week 1-7) |
Top 10 BEST PPG WR (Week 8-14) |
16.3 = Austin, DAL
14.9 = Fitzgerald, ARI
14.0 = Sims-Walker, JAC
14.0 = Wayne, IND
13.4 = V.Jackson, SD
13.0 = D.Jackson, PHI
12.8 = Colston, NO
12.5 = A.Johnson, HOU
12.3 = Ocho Cinco, CINN
12.3 = R.White, ATL |
14.2 = Harvin, MIN
14.1 = Marshall, DEN/MIA
14.1 = A.Johnson, HOU
13.2 = Moss, NE
12.7 = D.Jackson, PHI
12.2 = Meachem, NO
12.2 = Owens, BUF
12.1 = Fitzgerald, ARI
11.8 = Rice, MIN
11.7 = Welker, NE & Holmes, PIT |
We have the WR risers, and then we have the WR’s who fell. The following are
the players who dropped the most in PPG in Week 8-14, from Week 1-7. Were they
flashes in the pan? Once coverage was focused on them did they wither away?
Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, etc – they have defenses always focused on them,
but they don’t fade over time. Did the QB lose trust in these guys, or find a
better option? Something happened….
TOP 10 RANKING -- BIGGEST DECLINE “7&7” Metric for WR’s
- -6.2 = Sims-Walker, JAC
- -4.7 = Manningham, NYG
- -4.6 = V.Jackson, SD
- -4.1 = Hester, CHI
- -3.7 = Burleson, SEA/DET
- -3.3 = Wallace, PIT
- -3.3 = Steve Smith, NYG
- -3.2 = Colston, NO
- -3.1 = Driver, GB
- -3.0 = Welker, NE
Sims-Walker obviously jumps off the page. He is one I considered in a good
spot in 2010, not much WR competition there, great size (6’4 215)….even if the
Jags don’t throw that often. Sims-Walker went from a blazing 14.0 fantasy football PPG in the
first 7 weeks of the season, to a pedestrian 7.7 fantasy football PPG in the second 7. Week
15-16-17 were nothing to write home about either (5.7 fantasy football PPG). Looking back at
the stats and the games, it looks like Sims-Walker exploded onto the scene with
big games against the likes of KC, STL, and TEN. It looks like as the schedule
got tougher, and teams game planned for him, with no other great receiving
options to take the heat off – and Sims-Walker collapsed. My next thought is,
what has changed in Jacksonville to make it any different in 2010?
Mike Wallace was solid early, and then really fell off in Week 8-14. He came
back with a great stretch in Week 15-16-17 with 13.5 fantasy football PPG, so Wallace may get
some reprieve for being on this list. As Wallace declined, Santonio Holmes
picked up almost identical. I am leaning toward Wallace being able to step into
the Holmes role for 2010. Wallace looks to be a very good receiver, faster/as
fast as Holmes, and seems to be of higher character than Holmes. This stat may
somewhat help prove a Holmes/Wallace relationship of scoring. In Holmes three
best Fantasy Football games of 2009, Wallace averaged 4.1 fantasy football PPG. In Holmes
three worst Fantasy Football games of 2009, Wallace averaged 8.6 fantasy football PPG, a +4.5
jump or more than double improvement by Wallace when Holmes was not having a top
game.
Then there is the NY Giants. Not many players killed Fantasy Football seasons
early on like Mario Manningham. Likely undrafted (and if he was, he was bench
material) to start the season, then he posts a very good Game 1 and a Game 2 of
21.0 points and everyone rushed Manningham into the lineup. At that point he
fell off the table, hard. Steve Smith also dropped off from a very good start,
to an O.K finish in the next 7 weeks. Not on the list above another young NYG
WR, but he was # 11 on the “7&7” drop off -- Hakeem Nicks with a (-2.9).
A trio of young NYG WR’s that started fast and faded. Was it because Eli
Manning/NYG slowed down throwing? No, Eli had a better “7&7” in Week 8-14 as he
found Kevin Boss (TE) and Ahmad Bradshaw (RB) more versus the others. Also
Manningham, Nicks, and Smith started to “cannibalize” each other to a degree as
well. The key for 2010 will be to figure whom the odd man out will be in the NYG
WR mix….if any.
Hester had more targets per game in Week 8-14, but much less production. As
the Bears tried to make Hester a WR, he didn’t seem to improve as you would have
liked. Maybe defense started to figure out, or key on him? A quick look at
Hester on a “7&7” split (just receiving/rushing):
| DEVIN HESTER |
Week 1-7 |
Week 8-14 |
| Receptions PG= |
4.6 |
4.3 |
| Yards PG= |
62.1 |
51.5 |
| TD's PG= |
3 |
0 |
| FF Scoring PPG= |
9.1 |
5.0 |
Other notable items from the “low” ranking:
-
Donald Driver’s “7&7” drop (-3.1) seemed to come at TE Jermichael Finley’s
rise (+2.3).
-
As Marques Colston dropped, Robert Meachem went way up for the Saints.
-
Vincent Jackson was excellent in Week 1-7, a move to just good the next 7
weeks put him on this list.
-
Nate Burleson just seemed to drop, somewhat as Seattle dropped. He was very
good to start 2009, and then fell back to earth.
What to take away from this? I put some stock in the 7&7 Metric for a couple
reasons:
-
Especially for young receivers, it takes time to connect with
your QB. At the same time, it also can flush out WR’s that QB’s
don’t prefer….or they have found a better option. Also WR’s that
defenses have figured out how to control.
I don’t think most people would have guessed Percy Harvin
outscoring all WR’s in the Fantasy Football second half (Week
8-14) of 2009. Harvin is obviously a dangerous weapon, and only
got better as the season went on. Defenses didn’t “figure him
out” like some other young/speedster WR’s. This Metric has me
pushing Harvin much further up my draft board (assuming Favre
back.
-
The second 7 weeks of the NFL season is more “a tell” of ability
than the early portion of the schedule. Weather starts to play
in to things. Teams begin to gel on defense, and on offense.
More tape is available on teams, and especially on the “unknown”
young players. Inherently we all want our favorite teams and
players to finish on a high note, versus fizzling after a quick
start.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
By
