After this past week of NFL Draft and Schedule announcements – not only do I stick with Chris Johnson at # 1, but dropping Peterson (AP) out of # 2 on my Draft board for Ray Rice. Peterson is likely not done falling on my board……

My Metrics on the Peterson vs R.Rice debate:

2009 Rewind (Weeks 1-16):

• Peterson outscores Rice for fantasy football points per game 17.8 to 15.8 for season (16 games).

• Peterson 347 touches (Rush Att + Catches) vs Rice with 314.

• Rice 1,952 Rush/Rec yards vs 1,764 for Peterson.

• Peterson crushed Rice 17 TD’s to 8.

• Peterson only outscores Rice 17.4 to 17.1 in their 2nd half (Games 9-16).

• Peterson last 6 games (Games 10-16, key playoff run) had no games over 100 yards rushing, and only 3.3 yards per carry…but did score 6 TD’s. Rice, in that same period, had two 100-yard rushing games and 5.4 yards per carry. However, Rice scored only 1 TD (more on that in a bit).

Peterson and Rice were not that far apart for fantasy football 2009 overall, with Rice coming on about even in the 2nd half. The big differentiator all season was AP’s TD proficiency.

Ray Rice can make his move three ways in 2010:

1. The 2010 Schedule

Minnesota has one of the most difficult schedules upcoming for 2010. In the first 7 games out of the box, 6 of them are versus some of the most difficult defenses (and overall teams) to face.

• Week 1 = @ NO
• Week 2 = MIA
• Week 3 = DET
• Week 4 = BYE
• Week 5 = @ NYJ
• Week 6 = DALL
• Week 7 = @ GB
• Week 8 = @ NE

Besides Detroit, you are looking at 6 playoff/Super Bowl contending teams right away. Last season against teams with a winning record, AP averaged 80 rushing yards per game and 13.0 overall fantasy football points per game (vs 17.8 overall for season). AP may start out the first 7 games of the 2010 season averaging more like 50-70 yards per game, and the Vikes possibly needing to throw a lot more fending off a potential (1-6) or (2-5) start.

Baltimore, meanwhile, has one of the easier schedules upcoming for 2010. They do catch the Jets, Bengals and Patriots early on – but mixed with the Browns, Broncos and Bills. The Week 4 battle vs the Steelers is likely a non-“Big Ben” game.

Due to the schedule, AP may sink your season early – and leave you in a panic trying to make the fantasy football playoffs.

2. “The Back Up Plan”

The Vikings drafting of Toby Gerhart, adds a bruising “back up” that doesn’t have to come out near the goal line. In 2009, the Vikes went to AP almost to a fault near the end zone. Which led to an amazing 18 Rushing TD season (full season). 14 of those 18 TD’s in 2009, were 5 yards or less. Under the same circumstances will Peterson get as many close TD opportunities again? Under a much more difficult schedule will he get as many opportunities?

Ray Rice had a huge “point stealer” of a “back up” on his team in 2009 – Willis McGahee. Rice had only 7 Rushing TD’s, while McGahee rushed for 12. Rice was the overall workhorse, and then McGahee would plug in for short yardage TD runs often. McGahee had 7 of his 12 Rushing TD’s within 5 yards or less (Rice only 1 TD rushing within 5 yards). McGahee is back in 2010, and that hurts Rice’s fantasy football scoring potential. However, McGahee turns 29 this season – with a history of injury. Should McGahee slow down or miss a decent amount of time, Rice’s biggest hidden 2010 asset may be taking over more of the goal line situations.

3. “Farve”

What if Brett doesn’t come back? Leaving the Vikings facing a gauntlet of a schedule led by Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfelds. With no Favre, AP will be keyed on by some of the best teams in the NFL to start the season. Or….

What if Brett does come back, but gets hurt? Remember Kurt Warner getting lit up/hurt by the Saints in the playoffs. How about Favre getting battered by the Saints the following playoff game? Game 1 in 2010 for AP is Vikings @ Saints. A few weeks later the blitzing Jets and Packers might like a shot at him too. Then we are back to the Jackson/Rosenfeld scenario again.

Adrian Peterson is going to really need Brett Favre to help him survive 2010. Without him, AP’s performance may really sag.

Last season (Games 1-15) if you gave Rice 3 more TD’s, and 3 less for AP – then Rice pulls slightly ahead in 2009 fantasy football scoring. In 2010, I think it likely that Rice will score more TD’s than he did prior, with a better Raven passing game (Boldin and Stallworth added) and a possible decline of McGahee. At the same time, I think it likely that Peterson scores less TD’s in 2010 than 2009.

Not only do I think the TD counts will pull closer in 2010, but the Rush/Rec yardage totals will again be in Rice’s favor. Rice beat AP last year in overall yardage (Games 1-15, and + 16 too), and given this upcoming schedule – Rice may beat AP by even more in 2010. I haven’t even mentioned Peterson’s fumble issues either.

Early 2010 Projection (Weeks 1-16)

Ray Rice	Adrian Peterson
77 = Yards Rushing per game (79 in 2009)	65 = Yards Rushing per game (83 in 2009)
37 = Yards Receiving per game (42 in 2009)	31 = Yards Receiving per game (27 in 2009)
10 = TD’s Rush/Rec (8 in 2009)	12 = TD’s Rush/Rec (17 in 2009)
2 = Fumbles lost	4 = Fumbles lost
15.0 = fantasy football Pts per game (15.8 in 2009)	13.6 = fantasy football Pts per game (17.8 in 2009)

Their 2010 scoring projects to be somewhat close, but given Peterson’s mild decline down the stretch of 2009 along with the Favre risk, the schedule risk, and the fumble risk – as a fantasy football GM, I have to take Rice over AP with so much at stake with such a high draft slot.

 

 

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