The way Andy
Reid used Brian Westbrook -- drove Westbrook to become a high 1st
Round fantasy football Draft status RB. Westbrook “broke down” in 2009 and was
“let go” by the Eagles in 2010, and now the reigns have been (in
theory) handed to LeSean McCoy in 2010. Will that mean McCoy will
equal Westbrook’s production? If so, you are talking McCoy with a
first or second round fantasy football Draft value for 2010. But is he worthy of
that?
The most
interesting split I see from 2009, for a clue to 2010 is looking at
McCoy’s 2009 games played with Westbrook healthy/playing vs. games
Westbrook was out completely.
Games 1-15 =
LeSean McCoy averaged 7.7 fantasy football points per game. Coincidentally, so did
Brian Westbrook. However, McCoy’s 2009 stats changed drastically
when Westbrook’s status changed:
|
McCoy when Westbrook played |
McCoy when Westbrook did not play |
|
6
= games played |
9
= games played |
|
3.9 = fantasy football PPG |
10.2 = fantasy football PPG |
|
3.2 = yards per carry |
4.5 = yards per carry |
|
0
= TD’s |
4
= TD’s |
|
2.5 = catches per game |
2.5 = catches per game |
If you took McCoy’s 9 games without Westbrook and
made a 16 game full season out of it:
Not bad projections, but likely not first or second
round fantasy football Draft potential. The more I look at McCoy, the more
“concerns” I have…..
1) CONCERN -- McCoy’s rookie campaign was mediocre. When I look closer
at just the “good” games he had in 2009, the best 2 rushing
performances came against a weak KC and Chicago defense.
He had some really awful 2009 performances, a 6 carry
for 2 yards effort against the Falcons (no Westbrook). A doubly
awful 6 carries for 14 yards against the Buccaneers Week 5, followed
by a Week 6 effort vs. Oakland with 5 carries and just 13 yards.
Many RB’s made season highs against the Bucs or Raiders….except
LeSean McCoy. He was weak. Even RB’s that had limited carries vs.
OAK and TB turned in some decent fantasy football efforts, again not McCoy….
|
FF Points on 5-10 Carries vs. OAK ‘09 |
FF Points 5-10 Carries vs. TB ‘09
|
|
14.1 =
Westbrook, PA |
12.6 =
Green-Ellis, NE |
|
12.9 =
Felix Jones, DAL |
12.0 =
P.Thomas, NO |
|
12.6 =
Sproles, SD |
11.0 =
Norwood, ATL |
|
2.6 =
Sproles, SD |
9.5 =
Westbrook, PA |
|
1.3
= McCoy, PA |
6.5 =
Forsett, SEA |
| |
5.0 =
Norwood, ATL |
|
2.9
= McCoy, PA |
|
2.2 =
Felix Jones, DAL |
|
2.1 =
Greene, NYJ |
2) CONCERN – If
McCoy is just “OK” (not a rising star), and he is going to struggle
against the better defenses (notes above) – then he is going to hate
2010. I have the Eagles facing the 5th toughest schedule for a RB in
2010. Whatever is a normal level for McCoy, it is going to be
chipped into by the 2010 schedule (see article on RB-SOS-2010).
3) CONCERN – Even
if I dismissed the 2009 flaws as “rookie year”, and even if the
schedule doesn’t play as hard in 2010 as I project, I have one
remaining large concern about McCoy, and that’s the off-season Eagle
activity.
The Eagles
re-signed Leonard Weaver to a pretty healthy contract. He is built
to eat up short yardage, and especially short TD attempts. That
doesn’t help McCoy’s fantasy football stats. Weaver is a nice FB, so that may help
McCoy on the blocking side. Weaver could be chalked up to a nice
“helper” for McCoy. I could see that but then, the Eagles signed
Mike Bell -- and it made me really nervous on McCoy.
Bell’s best games
in 2009 were much better than McCoy’s. Bell nearly averaged the same fantasy football PPG as McCoy last year – and that was with Bell fighting for time
on the Saints with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. I could almost
make the case that Mike Bell projects better than McCoy based on
2009 Metrics. Bell’s 2006 rookie season was certainly better than
McCoy’s in 2009, if there is any worthwhile comparison there.
Weaver + Bell +
McCoy almost virtually guarantees McCoy cannot put up some of the
same stellar stats Brian Westbrook once produced as the main Eagle
RB.
McCoy is rated
around the 20th best RB, and around the 40th player taken overall in
Mock drafts I have seen/participated in. I can see him in that
20-25th best RB range. The closer the season approaches, I see McCoy
creeping up the Draft board with Westbrook comparisons…and being
touted as a 2010 RB “sleeper” by many fantasy football commentators. I don’t see
it.
McCoy is likely
going to sneak up into the teens on many RB Draft rankings as the fantasy football
Draft approaches. With all the concerns (many of those concerns have
little to do with him….more the schedule and surrounding cast) about
him, I don’t believe he is going to be a good value proposition in
The 2011 Fantasy Football Draft. There is too much risk surrounding him to “reach”
after him. I can foresee already he is going to be over-reached for
in The 2011 Fantasy Football Draft, and I know that there will be better RB
opportunities/values after he’s snatched up too early in your fantasy football
Draft.
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