I wrote it at the time, and I feel even more confident about it now – I think the Seattle Seahawks had one of the most unusual 2010 Draft’s in the NFL. It wasn’t so much the Draft picks. It was the trades/transactions surrounding it.

• Charlie Whitehurst = they traded draft spots/picks, and gave a decent sized contract to a totally unproven QB. He may be a fine QB, but that seems like a hefty investment for the “unknown”. This will be either one of the most brilliant moves of the decade (honestly, think of how major a steal this could be if Whitehurst is great), or this will be a major, major embarrassment.

• Trading up for USC TE Anthony McCoy. A “character issue” draftee (and didn’t every USC player drop in the 2010 draft on character?). A “risky” selection to give assets up for, on a team that had John Carlson and Chris Baker already there.

• Adding former USC character issue/major draft bust – WR Mike Williams, for a tryout

• Trading for LenDale White, another USC character issue.

I could see if they think Whitehurst is a big time NFL QB, and they beat everyone to the punch – you roll the dice. Taking an aggressive, high risk/high reward maneuver….no problem. Early OTA reports are that Whitehurst is a disappointment, and is being pushed by JP Losman for the backup QB spot.

If they want to give every ex-USC “troubled” player a chance “on the cheap”, no problem there….maybe.

Oh how everyone loved the LenDale White move, he was going to be a major Fantasy Football impact for 2010. White was going to score “a million” TD’s with Pete Carroll. A few weeks later, White has now been unceremoniously dumped. Did anyone do their homework before trading assets for LenDale White? It would be one thing for the Seahawks to give him a shot off the waiver wire (which he was likely headed), but to trade assets for him seemed like a reach.

Of all the moves I didn’t understand -- the one that made me “scratch my head” the most was the trade for Leon Washington, because of the connection to Justin Forsett.
 
I have been one growing in appreciation for Justin Forsett for 2010. The LenDale White pickup didn’t scare me as much for Forsett because I wasn’t high on White, and even if White played it wasn’t going to cut into Forsett’s time. Forsett is a 3rd Down scat back. White a short yardage bruiser. But, when Seattle also then moved in to pickup Leon Washington it scared me on Forsett.

You have to assume the new Seahawks coaching staff has scouted its own team, watched the tape, in-person visits and up-close looks. The have seen what Justin Forsett did in 2009, they know his character, and what he is capable of. All that and they quickly rushed to get White, and trade for Leon Washington.

Leon Washington is Justin Forsett; they might as well be the same person.

	Leon Washington	Justin Forsett
Height	5’8	5’8
Weight	195	194
40-Yd Dash  (Combine)	4.42	4.54
Cone Drill (Combine)	6.92	6.96
Draft Selection	#117 (4th)	#233 (7th)

Just went back and re-watched tape on Forsett. He looks good, very much like Leon Washington. Which is to say not an every down back. If the Seahawks have Forsett (and a lot of other issues to address), why would they go acquire (coming off major injury) Leon Washington? Either they know something about Forsett we don’t know…or they have just “overlooked” Forsett. Can’t believe they would waste a 5th Round draft pick on an RB like Leon Washington if they didn’t see him as an upgrade/someone to step right in.

If the Seahawks management values Washington over Forsett, this is going to be an unhappy year for the Fantasy Football Owner that picks up the “sleeper” Justin Forsett. Both are 3rd down backs, not every down backs. There is not room enough for both to accumulate Fantasy Football stats, and if they split time -- it won’t be good for either on Fantasy Football production.

Fantasy Football Scouting Forsett:

If Forsett does find his way to become the main 3rd down RB for the Seahawks, and I think that he will, he should put up some decent stats. I think Washington is not going to be ready to step in right away, and may lose a step coming off the injury.

A forecasted year (right now) for Forsett would be approx 100 carries, 500 yards rushing, 3 Rush TD’s and 60 Catches for 500 yards and 2 Rec TD’s. Projected about 8.5 Fantasy Football PPG. Right around the 35th best Fantasy Football RB overall, somewhere in that range. Right around where the Reggie Bush’s of the world reside (and the Seahawks will use him like Reggie Bush I think). If Forsett becomes a main kick and punt returner with Nate Burleson gone, perhaps he kicks up to a 9.0-9.5 Fantasy Football scorer (if you have KR/PR points in your league) at best. Not a starter in a 10 or 12-team league (like Reggie Bush), unless you have a flex position – then maybe Forsett catches on as a flex starter.

Could Forsett “breakout” for a more major year? Not likely.

The only 195-pound (or less) RB to produce Top 20 Yardage (Rush+Rec) from scrimmage the past 3 seasons (that I can find through reference, have to trust the listed weights) is Steve Slaton in 2008. Slaton put on 15 pounds for 2009, and we know what happened to Slaton in 2009 – he slowed down first, before the fumble and injury issues. Last seasons best 195-pound RB (or less) in Yardage (Rush+Rec) was LeSean McCoy (32nd best).

The odds are against smaller RB’s to make that type of huge impact. In order to, they have to be the main/only real option. Like with the Texans in 2008, when Steve Slaton got 268 carries and 50 catches with Ahman Green mostly injured all year. The Seahawks don’t seem to be pointing toward Forsett as their “main” guy. They tried to bring in LenDale White, they added Leon Washington, and they still have Julius Jones. Forsett is the “hot name” this week. That push/hype is probably going to move him up on Mock Drafts to an "over drafted" position for the next little bit.

Between what the Seahawks management have showed us so far, plus Forsett’s smaller stature as a RB, and now Forsett’s rise up to worldwide “sleeper” status – Forsett will likely be Drafted well ahead of his production capabilities. Someone to move the other direction of the herd on if it happens.

Forsett’s “sleeper” value is going to take 3 hits likely coming up, one of them is the “sleeper alert”, a deep sleeper”…..

(1) Marshawn Lynch to Seattle trade rumors/actual trade

Lynch is going to be traded. Seattle would (now especially) seem to be a good fit. Carroll seems “OK” with players of this “character”. Carroll has seen Lynch up close in the Pac-10. Seattle needs/wants a bruising RB. Lynch, with his “head on straight” could do some Fantasy Football damage in 2010 with Seattle.

I will assume that if a trade like that occurs, Lynch will be so wildly heralded as savior (like White), it will turn Lynch into a high projected Fantasy Football Draft pick. I like Lynch better than White, but possibly the emotion of it will carry Lynch up the Draft board beyond reason (like White). We’ll see if/when it happens.

(2) “Leon Washington is healthy”

We’re bound to hear at some point how well Washington is progressing. Any sign of Leon Washington doing “well” is a huge hit to Forsett’s value/production. This will actually help those who like Forsett, it will hold down his value – but I think Forsett will have a better season than Washington. Either way, these whispers are going to bring Forsett off the “Sleeper” high he is riding right now.

3) Louis Rankin

You just said, “who the Heck is Louis Rankin”, admit it. I am not saying that Louis Rankin is going to be the starting main RB for Seattle. Just keep an eye on if the Seahawks don’t trade for Lynch (or equivalent), and they enter the season
with Julius Jones, Forsett and Leon Washington. If Jones gets hurt (as he typically does), then you may find out who Louis Rankin is.

Undrafted out of college (Washington), he had an interesting career there. Played as a freshman and little more each season up to Senior year. His senior season he went from 10-15 carries per game in the first 8 games, and was jumped up to 20+ carries each game in his final 5 games of the Pac-10 season (final game was actually at Hawaii). When his carries rose in those 5 games, Rankin had two 200+ yard games (vs. Stanford and Cal). Rankin averaged 157 yards per game those final 5 games.

He was not invited to the NFL Combine in 2008. Was a Free Agent pickup by the Raiders, making the practice squad. After Week 2 of 2009 season the Raiders released him (plenty of RB’s on that roster) and was scooped up by Seattle. After a couple weeks working scout team, Rankin moved up to return kicks for Seattle in ’09 and he started to get a few carries. Rankin is a bigger back 6’1 and 205 pounds. Coaches praise his work ethic. Watching him in his best game (vs. Cardinals in 2009) he looked pretty good. Commentators spoke about how the staff was trying to get Rankin some additional opportunities. He had 3 carries and 3 catches in that game, not much after that in 2009 – mostly kick returns.

Again I say, I am NOT saying Louis Rankin = starting Seattle RB 2010. I am just saying “keep an eye on” the situation…a “deep sleeper” if you will. He could also pull a little time away from Forsett if he makes the roster.

The Seattle RB situation is still perplexing. A trade for Lynch would make it less so. Forsett is a hot name, but it seems like Seattle is doing everything it can to work around him. A lot can happen before season start, but at this point I think Forsett is going to be a reach (to become a top 25 Fantasy Football RB) because of the crowded backfield situation.

 

 

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