I’m not suggesting the 3rd column coming up (below) is our draft
board/rank order….additional things are factored in. But RB-SOS-2010 will have
an impact to an RB’s value. Just taking a look at everything equal to 2009 --
what the 2010 schedule hard/soft might do if 2009 results were “typical”.
Applying the RB-SOS-2010 to the 2009 average Fantasy Football points per game
(Games 1-15), we would have the following comparison (3 comparisons).
1) MOCK = Average draft position based on combined 2010 Mock Drafts I
participated in, observed, or compiled from internet mock draft sources.
2) 2009 = Average Fantasy Football points per game in 2009 (Games 1-15)
3) RB-SOS-2010 = RB-SOS-ATT schedule applied to the 2009 results (avg points
per game), to project to 2010 results.
4) RB-SOS-2010 Player Ranking comparisons:
|
RANK |
MOCK RB ADP |
RANK |
PPG |
2009 (Games 1-15) |
RANK |
PPG* |
RB-SOS-2010 |
|
(1) |
C.Johnson, TEN |
(1) |
21.3 |
C.Johnson, TEN |
(1) |
20.3 |
F.Gore, SF |
|
(2) |
A.Peterson, MIN |
(2) |
17.4 |
A.Peterson, MIN |
(2) |
19.7 |
C.Johnson, TEN |
|
(3) |
M.Jones-Drew, JAC |
(3) |
17.4 |
F.Gore, SF |
(3) |
19.2 |
M.Jones-Drew, JAC |
|
(4) |
R.Rice, BAL |
(4) |
16.9 |
M.Jones-Drew, JAC |
(4) |
16.4 |
M.Turner, ATL |
|
(5) |
F.Gore, SF |
(5) |
15.4 |
R.Rice, BAL |
(5) |
16.2 |
S.Jackson, STL |
|
(6) |
M.Turner, ATL |
(6) |
14.6 |
M.Turner, ATL |
(6) |
15.9 |
J.Charles, KC |
|
(7) |
S.Jackson, STL |
(7) |
14.4 |
T. Jones, NYJ/KC |
(7) |
15.6 |
A.Peterson, MIN |
|
(8) |
R.Mendenhall, PIT |
(8) |
13.4 |
R.Brown, MIA |
(8) |
14.9 |
DA Williams, CAR |
|
(9) |
S.Greene, NYJ |
(9) |
13.3 |
R. Williams, MIA |
(9) |
14.5 |
R.Rice, BAL |
|
(10) |
DA Williams, CAR |
(10) |
13.3 |
DA Williams, CAR |
(10) |
13.6 |
K.Moreno, DEN |
*18.7 = RB-SOS-ATT for T.Jones, fantasy football pts w/ Jets, not a good translation w/ KC
2010
First impressions of schedule impact:
Virtually every 2010 Mock Draft I have participated in has a version of the
top 4 of Chris Johnson, AP, Rice, and MJD. Pick your order. Based on
RB-SOS-2010, the bump with ease of schedule that Frank Gore gets would shove his
way into that top 4. Potentially worthy of a # 1 pick.
Also with the SOS, AP and Rice fall out of the top 4 clique – if you were to
move them out of your top 4 on your Draft Board, you are virtually saying you
are not drafting them. The play there might be, if you buy RB-SOS-2010, to trade
out of # 2-3-4 slots (if you have the pick) in order to fall to the # 5-6 if you
can improve your draft picks later.
Two fresh faces jump into the top 10 with RB-SOS-2010. Jamaal Charles and
Knowshon Moreno based on ’09 performance + 2010 SOS. In 2010 Mock Drafts I am
seeing Charles around 11-12th RB overall selected and Moreno around 12-14th
overall, both projected 2nd round selections (Moreno occasional early 3rd
round). Both of these guys may have First Round value with the SOS.
Based on early research I can see where Jamaal Charles might have a better
2010 rating for me than Adrian Peterson. If I know that, and I’m sitting with
the #2 overall draft pick in 2010 – I am definitely using that asset to fall
back to let someone else draft Peterson, and I’ll take Charles a little later
on.
Rashard Mendenhall has been a stable 1st round pick/top 10 in most every Mock
Draft I have participated. The rough Steelers SOS might have me pulling him out
toward #13-15 overall possibly.
How to project the rookies with RB-SOS-2010?
Let’s say you loved CJ Spiller, Jahvid Best, Ryan Mathews and Ben Tate
equally. Let’s say they get considerable playing time, and let’s assign 11 fantasy football
points per game to them in a best case scenario under “normal”/very good
circumstances for them. Throw the RB-SOS-2010 into that, and they would rank for
2010:
|
PPG |
RB-SOS-ATT on Rookies |
|
13.5 |
R.Mathews, SD |
|
10.7 |
B. Tate, HOU |
|
10.0 |
J.Best, DET |
|
8.9
|
CJ Spiller, BUF |
I know, CJ Spiller fans are freaking out. But, Spiller is the one I feel best
about calling “low” of the group. That schedule is brutal. Worst of all the RB’s
to have to face. But, remember last year – Moreno led all rookies at only 10.8
per game. Chris Johnson had approx 11 PPG in his rookie Fantasy Football year.
How many people thought Reggie Bush or Darren McFadden were locks right away?
One thing is for sure; rookies will always be over-drafted in FF.
Ryan Mathews is an interesting rookie however. Drafted onto a good team, in
major need of a main RB. If you love Mathews, then you will love the SD RB-SOS
even more. I am not a fan of Ryan Mathews myself. I think he is a potential bust
(see my NFL Draft articles and Metrics on why).
Strength of Schedule matters, big time. If you are not using it, or
considering it, in developing your Mock Draft Board – you are playing Fantasy
Football with “one arm tied behind your back”.
(Click here for
Part 1 of this report)
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
By
