After the first 8 games of the 2009 season, Greene essentially had no stats the first 3 games of ’09. Then barely any stats in the next 3 games (23 yards rushing vs. N.O. was his best). The only production to speak of in the first half of ’09 was during a Jets blowout of Oakland in Week 7, where Greene went for mop up duty after Thomas Jones ran wild, Greene rushed for 144 yards and 2 TD’s against 2nd and 3rd teamers.

Many in FF-land got all excited at this Jets/Oakland Shonn Greene box score and highlights. If you hadn’t watched that particular Raiders/Jets game and you just saw the box score stats you would think, “wow, Shonn Greene is the next breakout RB star”. Many did just see the surface, immediately picking him up off fantasy football free agency. Many then injecting him as their new RB2 hope the following week. Just in time for a Week 8 dud – an 8 carry, 18-yard effort vs. the Dolphins. Halfway through the season, Greene had essentially one good partial game in a Raider blowout “stat grab” to go along with 7 unimpressive other games.

The next 6 games Greene ranges from –1 yard in a game, to a high of 59 yards and loses 2 fumbles. At that point all Greene is, is minor relief for Thomas Jones. With Leon Washington hurt, it was all the Jets basically had.

The final 2 games of 2009 were better, important “big stage” games. Week 16 in the Colts “playoff health preservation” game, Greene goes for 95 yards. Not that impressive a performance vs. a Colts team that wasn’t really playing. Followed by an decent 62 yard effort in the Week 17 finale. Week 17 was an important game for the Jets to clinch their playoff birth, but not really important for the disinterested Bengals (who also “laid down” for playoff health).

Greene wraps up the 2009 regular season with his 3 overall season top performances as a 2nd half pile-on vs. Oakland, and two mediocre performances against teams who had no reason to play all their starters/care. Greene’s rookie regular season totals were just over 500 rushing yards for the season, 3 lost fumbles and 2 TD’s (all vs. Oakland). With just one individual game over 10 fantasy football total points (26 vs. Oakland) all season.

So how did this lead to the phenomena?

We know the next part of the story. Greene goes crazy in Rounds 1 and 2 of the playoffs at Cincinnati, and at San Diego. Two 100+ yard rushing games, two 19+ fantasy football point games in the playoffs with a national audience -- and the “legend” begins. To further the frenzy, the Jets let Thomas Jones go in the off-season, and people can do the math. (Jets - Jones + Greene, and it comes up as Shonn Greene = Thomas Jones for fantasy football in 2010)

But, is that really the case? Can we compare a RB who has had 5 consecutive seasons of 1,100+ yard seasons with back-to-back 14+ TD seasons (T.Jones) to a rookie who had 2 great playoff games and was a huge dud in the regular season (Greene)?

The answer is yes, and I'll spend the rest of this article explaining why.

Any running RB who starts for the ’10 Jets is going to rush for 1,000+ yards and 10+ TD’s.

Give credit to the Jets Offensive Line. Give credit to Rex Ryan who will run the ball ad nausea as their overall game plan strategy. It is what carried (literally) Thomas Jones to that amazing 2009 season (see prior articles on this in depth). The Jets were out of RB’s, and Jones was force-fed the ball over-and-over as part of a ball control plan.

Greene and Jones stat comparison in the Jets final 6 games (3 playoffs included), where Greene begins to take over for Jones:

GREENE	JONES
495 = yards	352 = yards
5.5 = yards per carry	3.1 = yards per carry
55 = carries in the playoffs	55 = carries in the playoffs
101 = yards per game in playoffs	55 = carries in the playoffs
10.1 = fantasy football points per game/playoffs	39 = yards per game in the playoffs

Once Greene started to share/take over the majority of the carries, he went well past Thomas Jones production. A Jets RB that gets carries, whether it is Leon Washington (now with Seattle), Thomas Jones (now with KC), or Shonn Greene – is going to thrive.

Greene will get a majority of the 2010 carries. Even though LaDainian Tomlinson is on the scene now, there are plenty of carries to go around as a Jets RB and I think Greene will get the majority of them.

*I think LT will benefit from this with a surprise year as well, but I digress….

For lack of a better word -- “Greene is Good” (Can’t wait for “Wall Street 2” to come out….)

I went back and re-watched tape of the final 6 Jets games in 2009, and it is remarkable to me how much quicker and shiftier Greene was than Thomas Jones. I know I thought that right away last October when Greene started to spell Jones midway last season. But, re-watching with a solo focus of the two – it is easy to tell that Greene is quicker, east/west running a thousand times better, and Greene is just as physical (if not more) as Jones (thus the Jets drop Thomas Jones in the off-season confusing most everyone….not me).

So if a slower, less shifty, yet physical Thomas Jones can rush for 1,400+ yards with the Jets….what might Greene do in 2010?

Greene isn’t much of receiving threat (8 catches his senior year at Iowa, with 307 rushing attempts for 1,850 yards and 1 catch all season for the Jets), so he will be spelled by LT and Joe McKnight (or whoever is the Jets 3rd RB…not sold on McKnight yet) on many third down type situations. That’s not to fear for Greene’s production. The Jets are going to run the ball down people’s throats even when Santonio Holmes is back. It’s what the Jets do. Greene’s talent mixed with the obvious benefits of the Jets game plan and O-Line, and this could be something special.

Greene’s games in 2009 with 10 carries or more (includes playoffs)

• 8 = games
• 123 = carries
• 700 = rushing yards
• 4 = TD’s
• 1 = lost fumble (Greene’s “fumble issues” were earlier on in ‘09, and the issue may be overblown)
• 11.5 = fantasy football points per game

Greene’s 8 game stats above, doubled into a 16 game projection

• 246 = carries
• 1,400 = yards
• 8 = TD’s
• 11.5 fantasy football points per game

Greene’s 2009 stats projected based off of Thomas Jones’s 2009

*Jones had 331 carries in the 2009 season.

• 331 = carries
• 1,883 = rushing yards
• 11 = TD’s
• 15.9 = fantasy football points per game

Do I think Greene will get 1,800+ yards this year…no. Is it impossible? Not entirely.

If LT stays healthy he will cut into Greene’s numbers somewhat. If LT gets hurt on/off and Greene is used like Jones last year – then I would say a 1,500-1,600+ year might unfold. Greene is that much better than Thomas Jones (now). The Jets schedule for an RB to face is slightly tougher than average but would only affect expected performance slightly.

Greene is not a “god”. I think Greene on the Chiefs (let’s say) would rush for 500-700 yards in 2010 and be forgettable. It’s amazing/insane that a single team difference could mean the difference of as much as 1,000 yards (imagine how happy his agent must be) in a season. The Jets system + Shonn Greene is better than the Jets system + Thomas Jones….and the Jets + Jones output was amazing last year. Greene could do something amazing in 2010.

If I have you all hyped up on Shonn Greene now, the question is – what to do with him in The 2011 Fantasy Football Draft? This is tricky.

When I participate and observe in 2010 Mock Drafts over the last few months, sometimes Greene is gone around # 10 overall and other times he slides to as late as #16-20 overall. Likely if you want Shonn Greene you’re going to have to reach up early with overall picks #8-15 to get him. A great place to be would be in a # 10 draft slot (on a 10 team or 12 team draft) and be in position to grab him late first or very early second round.

We are still analyzing data for our 2010 fantasy football Draft guides and rankings – but I could see Greene possibly as a top 5 overall in value. If you want Greene, that would be too early (strategy wise) to take him in most fantasy football Drafts….you should likely look to trade your # 5-6-7 for some later round move up -- and fall back to get him, if you want him bad.

Greene got a little “too” much exposure with his excellent playoff performances, to be a 2010 “sleeper”. LT’s free agent signing didn’t seem to faze many fantasy football GM’s -- concerning LT’s possible fantasy football impact to Greene’s numbers. I think it will have an effect, but not a major one. LT’s age means he is likely to injured at various points of the 2010 season – great for Greene’s fantasy football stat performance.

You will get value out of Greene in 2010 if you take him first round; I project him (barring injury) to put up very worthy 2010 stats. He has a chance, however, to have something really special in this moment in time given the Jets game plan and roster. You can’t let him slide past you in the fantasy football Draft’s second round no matter what number pick you have, and you have to consider him (depending upon number of teams in your league) as a possible mid to late first round pick.

 

 

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