Data Note:
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We typically run ’09
Fantasy Football stats based on just Games 1-15, as Game 16 usually throws
off the “normal” performances/stats.
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We do have partial games
measured in fractions where we can account for it, so a player who played
1st half and was injured and couldn’t play for 2nd half, would have a 0.5
games played for that game.
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Standard fantasy football scoring, no
bonuses
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I have been looking at a Metric to study Fantasy Football performance
based on “opportunity”. A statistic similar to a “points per minute” in
basketball (or rebounds per minute, etc). In Basketball it is used as a way to
judge players that maybe have their stats “pushed” a bit by the number of
minutes that they are on the court (opportunity, in a sense) or vice-versa, it
can find a player that is really performing well in limited minutes – then you
are left to drool at the possibility if you extrapolate the numbers with more
playing time/minutes.
In that same vein, I ran a Metric on RB’s called
Points Per Attempt (PP-ATT). PP-ATT for Running Backs (2009
Games 1-15) is a RB’s total Fantasy Football points (Rushing/Receiving) compared
to their attempts (rushing attempts + receptions).
Logic follows that players that have a high PP-ATT, if given more attempts or
their situation has changed to take more of the workload then these players
(theoretically) could really “breakout” in 2010. Players that get plenty of
“attempts” already – we might be able to judge between the “great” vs. those not
so great that just compiled stats on a lot of “attempts”.
More attempts or carries could take a toll on smaller RB’s, so maybe the
“smaller” RB’s will never be able to get those high “attempts” counts – that has
to be factored in before rushing too far ahead of this. The only RB’s under 200
pounds (trusting listed weights) on the Top 20 PP-ATT list are Forsett (194) and
Bradshaw (198).
Top 20 BEST PP-ATT for RB’s 2009 (100+ carries – Games 1-15)
- 0.86 = Chris Johnson, TEN
- 0.84 = Pierre Thomas, NO
- 0.80 = Ricky Williams. MIA
- 0.80 = Michael Turner, ATL
- 0.79 = Frank Gore, SF
- 0.77 = Adrian Peterson, MIN
- 0.77 = Jonathan Stewart, CAR
- 0.76 = Ray Rice, BAL
- 0.75 = Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
- 0.75 = Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
- 0.75 = Ronnie Brown, MIA
- 0.74 = Justin Forsett, SEA
- 0.71 = Beanie Wells, ARI
- 0.71 = Joseph Addai, IND
- 0.71 = Jamaal Charles, KC
- 0.71 = Tim Hightower, ARI
- 0.71 = DeAngelo Williams, CAR
- 0.68 = Jason Snelling, ATL
- 0.68 = Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
- 0.68 = Felix Jones, DAL
Couple of thoughts from the list:
Pierre Thomas at # 2
overall, very interesting
I really loved PT going into 2009; he averaged 12.0 ppg last season (throw
out game 16 and the one game early on where played like 2-3 plays). Just looking
at games where he had 10 or more carries, Thomas averaged 13.8 ppg, which is Top
10 fantasy football ppg scoring territory among RB’s. Thomas frustrated me at times in 2009,
especially when Sean Payton would interject Mike Bell on goal line situations
and Reggie Bush would wake up every so often. Now Mike Bell is gone (PA), and
Mike Bell had a very underrated season.
Thomas scored 0.84 PP-ATT in ’09 (147 carries, 39 rec), following up an
impressive 0.93 PP-ATT in 2008 (129 carries, 31 rec). Thomas went for 0.75
PP-ATT in very limited time in 2007 (52 carries, 17 rec). Every season Thomas
earns more carries and receptions, and maintains a high PP-ATT. If PT gets 200+
carries in 2010, his could be a great draft pick value in 2010 after the typical
first wave of RB’s are taken.
Is Ahmad Bradshaw (# 9
overall in PP-ATT) one to watch in 2010?
Bradshaw continues to wrestle carries away from Brandon Jacobs? I didn’t
really have him on my radar until I started running this number. Jacobs will be
28 years old, and Bradshaw 24 this upcoming season. What if Bradshaw takes over
the majority of the carries in 2010 due to performance, or a Jacobs injury?
Jacobs had a PP-ATT of 0.59, 33rd best among RB’s in 2009….a huge drop from his
great 0.90 per game 2008. In limited time in 2008 (67 carries, 5 rec) Bradshaw
had a PP-ATT of 0.72, followed by the 0.75 PP-ATT in 2009.
An additional 100 “attempts” in 2009 for Bradshaw (which would take/project
him to only 220 carries, + 30 catches as an example), and he moves into a top 10
RB fantasy football PPG performer. In 2009 Bradshaw was 28th in fantasy football PPG among RB’s, yet he is
taken about 35-40th +/- in most Mock Drafts I have participated in pre-season.
With more carries/receptions Bradshaw’s 2010 projections could easily move into
the top 20 best RB’s for 2010. Could wind up to be a great later round steal.
20-40th BEST PP-ATT for RB’s 2009 (100+ carries – Games 1-15)
- 0.67 = Thomas Jones, NYJ/KC
- 0.67 = Ryan Grant, GB
- 0.65 = Jerome Harrison, CLE
- 0.65 = LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/NYJ
- 0.64 = Cadillac Williams, TB
- 0.64 = Steve Slaton, HOU
- 0.63 = Marion Barber, DAL
- 0.63 = Lawrence Maroney, NE
- 0.63 = Michael Bush, OAK
- 0.62 = Correll Buckhalter, DEN
- 0.60 = LeSean McCoy, PHI
- 0.59 = Brandon Jacobs, NYG
- 0.57 = Mike Bell, NO/PHI
- 0.55 = Derrick Ward, TB
- 0.55 = Kevin Smith, DET
- 0.54 = Knowshon Moreno, DEN
- 0.54 = Fred Jackson, BUF
- 0.54 = Cedric Benson, CIN
- 0.54 = Justin Fargas, OAK
- 0.53 = Steven Jackson, STL
Thomas Jones, not in the top
20
Awesome 2009, top 10 overall RB fantasy football scorer -- but again I drill on (sorry to
my regulars) the fact that 2009 was more about the Jets O-Line and game plan of
force-feeding the run. On this PP-ATT Metric he is # 21. Jones is going to be
trouble for the fantasy football GM that drafts him in 2010; the 2010 KC situation is nothing
like the 2009 Jets one. Jones will have little impact on Jamal Charles, in my
opinion (you can see more on this on a prior article).
LeSean McCoy at # 31
McCoy had plenty of opportunity in 2009 with Westbrook down often with
injury. Yet, McCoy never really capitalized on it. McCoy looks like (size and
performance) like he may fall into a “3rd down RB” role vs. a feature back like
Westbrook. A lot Fantasy Football 2010 Mock Drafters are taking McCoy high. Andy
Reid may not even be as high on McCoy’s every down prowess, picking up Mike Bell
in Free Agency. Full analysis on McCoy’s 2009, and 2010 look ahead available on
an article still posted on the website.
300+ Carry Club, not in the
top 30
Fred Jackson (#37) and Cedric Benson both had 300+ carries in 2009, and had
very low PP-ATT. Benson is very dependent on “attempts”. Will he get them in
2010? We’re pretty sure Fred Jackson won’t. Jackson’s 2009 is more about
opportunities then his greatness, and now I fear Benson’s maybe the same. The
question on Benson will be, will he get all the touches again in 2010? Appears
that way, but if the early “buzz” on Bernard Scott’s summer workouts have some
truth – that would start to cut into Benson a little bit, then watch out on a
disappointing 2010 for Benson.
Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew can get 300+ carries and
keep a high PP-ATT with it. Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, and Fred Jackson did
not….is this a “tell” for 2010?
Steven Jackson is a first round Fantasy Football pick in most every 2010 Mock
Draft (occasional early 2nd round), and the 40th best PP-ATT in 2009. Granted
this is all the Rams had for Offense, and they wore him out. Will they do so
again? Will Bradford change the landscape on it a bit? Even Jackson’s amazing
2006 was only at 0.75 PP-ATT.
Can Jackson keep up the workload given some recent injury issues and,
perhaps, a new offensive scheme with Bradford in? Not that Jackson isn’t a great
RB, but is he worthy of a first round draft pick? Sometimes I see him go as high
as the # 5 or 6 pick overall. If he has reduced 2010 attempts, Jackson falls out
of first round Draft pick value.
Over-loaded the last couple
games? 24th best Jerome Harrison
That amazing run at the end of the season, watching those games -- it was
comical. The Cleveland QB’s were so bad, they would just run Harrison over and
over, and occasionally try to get the ball to Josh Cribbs. With Hardesty and
Delhomme on the roster now, will Harrison get the ball crammed to him in 2010 as
much as he did down the stretch of 2009? If Harrison doesn’t get the “attempts”
– will he be worthy of some of the higher draft pick levels I see him going at
on pre-season Mock Drafts?
LESS THAN 100 CARRIES (Games 1-15) IN 2009
High PP-ATT among RB’s of interest with less than 100 carries
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1.08 = Willis McGahee –
amazing TD count in ’09, betting against a repeat of it in 2010.
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0.85 = Darren Sproles –
smallest back on the list, high production touches. Can he get enough
touches in 2010? Likely not, likely split or defer to Mathews.
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0.75 = Donald Brown –
better/similar to Addai, he and Addai are likely to cut into each other in
2010.
Low PP-ATT among RB’s of interest, with less than 100 carries
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0.57 = Shonn Greene – very
weak regular season, but a much better 0.78 PP-ATT in the playoffs.
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0.51 = Leon Washington –
horrible ’09 for him, Washington had a 1.03 PP-ATT in a limited “Reggie
Bush-type” role in ’08. With the Jets game plan and O-Line, Washington (even
in limited time) should have done much better. The Jets letting him go for
“nothing” may be a “tell” as well.
Skill is certainly critical in analyzing any football player, but weighing
in the impact of attempts (and thus projecting attempts for 2010) is just as
key.
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