Rodgers, Manning, Brees... OR...Manning, Rodgers, Brees...
OR...
Brees, Manning, Rodgers.
Typically one or more will go in the 1st Round. By the 2nd Round they are
gone, which leads to a QB pause for a bit before (typically) the
Tom Brady card is played (which we think is a
major, major mistake – see The Case
Against QB Tom Brady).
Not soon after Brady is taken, then (usually) Philip Rivers comes off as the
5th QB taken. Typically this all occurs in the 3rd Round (10-12 team league).
Occasionally late 2nd Round if a QB panic sets in, or 4th Round if QB’s run
later in your leagues Draft.
What if Philip Rivers is near/as good as the “Big 3” in fantasy football
scoring in 2010?
It would allow you to stockpile RB / WR talent in the first few rounds before
popping Rivers….yet, getting payback of Rivers scoring like the “Big 3”? It's a
nice dream, but is it a reality?
Let’s focus on the “Big 5” – Rodgers, Brees, P.Manning, Brady and Rivers,
with a look back and look forward to see where Rivers could end up among them in
2010.
Top 10 fantasy football Scoring QB’s for 2009, likely starters for 2010
(Games 1-15, fractional games where obvious)
21.2 = Rodgers, GB 19.5 = Brees, NO
19.2 = P Manning, IND
17.5 = Roethlisberger, PIT
17.4 = McNabb, PHI/WAS
17.4 = Rivers, SD
17.3 = Brady, NE
17.3 = Favre, MIN
17.2 = Schaub, HOU
It may not seem like a lot, a 2-4 point spread from the “Big 3”. But in
actuality that is pretty big among the QB class. After the “Big 3”, the next 7
of the Top 10 scoring fantasy football QB’s were almost identical in 2009.
Having Rivers was not much different then Brady, or a bunch of other QB’s.
fantasy football Owners wasted a golden draft opportunity by throwing away
2nd–4th Round picks in 2009 on the likes of Brady and Rivers, while others used
early picks to nab top RB/WR’s only to get the same Brady/Rivers scoring
performance in later Round QB’s like Schaub, Favre, etc.
In order for a QB to jump up into the “Big 3” for 2010, he is going to have
to up his score to 19.0+ fantasy football ppg. I don’t think Rodgers, P.Manning
or Brees are going to drop back to the field much (unless injured).
I see a scenario where Rivers can make that move, based on 3 arguments:
1. Passing Attempts
Whether it is “carries” for a RB, “targets” for a WR, or “passing attempts”
for a QB – “opportunities” matter. The best example of this is a discussion I
had with someone the other day. He was making the argument that “RB A” was
better than “RB B” because of “RB A” having yards per carry that were better. I
also subscribe to YPC as one good way to judge RB performance/talent. However,
you have to consider the carries (“opportunities”) that go with it.
An RB that gets 20 carries with a 5.0 YPC = 100 yards rushing. Another RB
that gets 30 carries with 4.0 YPC = 120 yards rushing….and more fantasy football
points (just on the yards side). Also, more carries = more opportunities at a TD
run (theoretically). Attempts and “opportunities” mean the world in FF.
2009 Passing Attempts per game “Big 5” (Games 1-15)
38.1 = Manning, IND (14.5 games)
35.9 = Brady, NE
34.3 = Brees, NO
33.8 = Rodgers, GB
31.4 = Rivers, SD
You may think that’s not that big a deal. But, did you know of the Top 10
QB’s in fantasy football last season that Rivers was 10th/last among them in
passing attempts? In fact Rivers was 22nd among the “main” QB’s in Passing
Attempts per game in 2009.
Rivers is one of the best QB’s in the NFL, and to me he is being
underutilized. When it “counted”, in the playoff game against the Jets, Rivers
then threw 40 times in that game. With all the changes in the Charger backfield,
will Norv Turner move to step up Rivers throwing another 1-2-3-4+ times a game?
If so, what would that look like?
A move to the average amount of Passing Attempts of the “Big 3” would jump
Rivers by another 4 Pass Attempts per game. It would also then jump his
completions by 2-3 more per game as well. In 15 games, that’s another 30+
completions in a season. More completions = more Fantasy Football scoring.
To illustrate that, below is taking QB’s fantasy football scoring divided by
their “passing attempts”. This gives a little insight into how efficient, or
proficient, a QB is with each throw on average.
2009 fantasy football points per Passing Attempt, for the “Big 5” (Games
1-15)
0.63 = Rodgers, GB
0.57 = Brees, NO
0.55 = Rivers, SD
0.50 = P.Manning, IND
0.48 = Brady, NE
Vince Young, in his partial season, is the only QB in the “Big 5” to score
scored more fantasy football points per attempt than Rivers – with Young at 0.59
(a chunk of that running…) fantasy football points per attempt. Rivers is a
great NFL QB, and he can put up big fantasy football stats as well. If you give
Rivers the additional 4 passing attempts per game in 2009, Rivers fantasy
football PPG (theoretically) jumps up by +2.2. If that were to happen last
season, the fantasy football scoring standings among the “Big 5” might have
looked like this:
“Big 5” QB’s 2009 fantasy football scoring with Rivers adjusted by 4 more
passing Attempts per game
21.2 = Rodgers, GB
19.6 = Rivers, SD
19.5 = Brees, NO
19.2 = P Manning, IND
17.3 = Brady, NE
If Rivers gets 10-15% more Passing Attempts, just 4 more throws per game,
then he has had the past couple seasons then Rivers can likely/possibly make a
move to that 19.0+ fantasy football PPG area. If he does, Rivers starts to
become a great 2010 Draft value in the 3rd Round (vs. P.Manning, Rodgers, Brees
in the Round 1 & 2).
In point # 3 (below), I am going to address more in detail why he might get
those additional attempts.
2. SOS -- Strength of Schedule (or in Rivers case, WOS -“Weakness of
Schedule”)
Some how the Chargers made out with one of the best schedules for a QB to
face in 2010. Statistically we have it as the third easiest Pass Defense SOS at
the moment. When I eyeball it, my gut tells me, it may wind up as the # 1
easiest. But I trust facts, trends and stats over “my gut”. 3rd easiest is still
pretty nice for a QB for their scoring.
The toughest fantasy football Pass Defenses SD will face (we project) in the
fantasy football regular season is Arizona, Denver, and Indianapolis. They
do have Denver and Cincinnati late/FF playoff time Weeks 15 and 16.
Currently we have the
Worst 6 Defenses for a QB
to have to face in 2010 for fantasy football (article coming soon):
- NY Jets
- Buffalo
- Arizona
- Carolina
- Dallas
- New Orleans
A couple on the list may make you scratch your head, but (for example)
Buffalo was very difficult for the top QB’s to score on (FF scoring) in 2009.
The Bills Defense (2009) held the “Top” QB’s (exclude journeymen/rookies/etc) to
the 3rd lowest fantasy football scoring PPG in 2009. They held Schaub under 7
points, and Brees under 6 for fantasy football scoring in games in 2009. The
Bills were very underrated, maybe due in part to the weather, maybe it’s easier
to run against them -- and it still makes me scratch my head….but it’s true. If
you give any credence to the Defense list above, then what the “Big 5” QB’s have
to look forward to in 2010 is below.
Number of times a “Big 5” QB will face a Top 6 fantasy football Pass
Defense in 2010:
4 = Brady, NE (6 times in 2009)
4 = Brees, NO (4 times in 2009)
3 = Rodgers, GB (1 time in 2009)
1 = P.Manning, IND (1 time in 2009)
1 = Rivers, SD (1 time in 2009)
Pulling the NY Jets on your 2009 schedule was virtually a “lost” or “bench”
game for your QB (and WR) in 2009. We project it will be again in 2010.
Who has the Jets on their schedule?
2 = Brady, NE
1 = Brees, NO
1 = Rodgers, GB
0 = P.Manning, IND
0 = Rivers, SD
As if the opponents weren’t enough of a break, then they “gifted” Rivers with
a great December (“cold”) schedule. Tom Brady draws home to Jets, @ Bears, home
with GB, and @ Bills for Weeks 13-16. Brady is possibly in “Ice Bowls” down the
stretch and into the fantasy football playoffs. Aaron Rodgers gets @ NE, with
home dates with the Giants and 49ers in the December fantasy football
stretch/playoffs. Drew Brees even snags @ Baltimore and @ Cincy down the
stretch.
Peyton Manning gets off easy (again), maybe a Dec 9th slight coolness with a
Sunday Night Game @ Tennessee….but smooth sailing beyond that for weather
impact. Philip Rivers fares very well in all this too. The first 3 weeks of
December games are all at Home -- with Oakland, KC, and SF. Rarely do you get 3
home games in a row in the NFL – SD does, and all in December! An fantasy
football Super Bowl game @ Cincy Week 16 is the only “cold” threat for Rivers.
Rivers projects to have one of the easiest 2010 schedules for a QB, with no
need to bench him for a game against the Jets because he doesn’t play them. The
December/weather impact sits almost perfect for him. If Rivers gets the passing
attempts similar to the other “Big 5”, with nothing on the schedule in his way –
there is no reason why Rivers cannot jump up to 19.0+ fantasy football PPG.
3. No more LaDainian Tomlinson
LT had definitely lost a step, however he still had a decent fantasy football
year. He still was lethal around the goal line, again scoring double digit TD’s
(12). Of his 12 TD’s, 11 TD’s were 10 yards or less, 9 TD’s were 4 yards or
less. Despite “slowing down” the Chargers gave LT the ball 223 times last year.
Watching their games back, and especially the playoff game….it almost seems (and
this sounds crazy) that LT had a “sway” over the game plan. No matter how
ineffective LT was (3.3 ypc in 2009), he would get the ball again and again –
especially near the goal line. Here the Chargers are sitting with one of the
best QB’s in the NFL, with arguably the best TE, and a couple nice 6’5 WR’s…and
they seemed to want to stuff the ball to LT when critical yards were needed.
I think it is what cost them the playoff game against the Jets. Sproles was
getting loose (3 carries, 33 yards, 3 catches, 30 yards), Rivers was eating them
up early – then they would give it to LT in critical spots, and he would get
stuffed (2.0 ypc in playoff game, rushing long of 5 yards on 12 carries, 3
catches, 0 yards).
Maybe it was the status LT had achieved in San Diego, I don’t know….but it
seems like LT was an offensive “buzz kill” every SD game I watched back.
Whatever it was, he is gone now. Whatever sway LT had on Norv Turner, the
organization, whoever – it is no longer.
If a couple more of those short and goal pops go to Rivers to throw, instead
of LT TD runs it would push another 1.0+ PPG or so onto Rivers.
Percent of all 6 yards of less TD’s that were passing TD’s, by Offenses
from the “Big 5” QB’s (games 1-15)
29% = GB (71% running TD’s)
29% = NE (71% running TD’s)
37% = SD (63% running TD’s)
42% = NO (58% running TD’s)
67% = IND (only 33% running TD’s)
I am not as high on Ryan Mathews as some are. Darren Sproles is not an every
down back. San Diego now removed from the shackles of LT, and (maybe) with not
much of a top running game again in 2010 – potentially forces Rivers into more
throws (which stated before is good for fantasy football scoring).
Where does Rivers then stack up on the Draft Board within the “Big 5” QB’s
for 2010?
I think Rivers is going to have an increase in passing attempts and TD’s this
year, and it’s going to translate into a push toward 19.0-20.0 fantasy football
PPG. If that’s the case he leaves Brady in the dust, because I think Brady is
going to around 15.0 PPG – so kick Brady out of this conversation.
Rivers at 19.0-20.0 fantasy football PPG puts him right with Brees and
P.Manning for fantasy football scoring last year, with Rodgers a point above.
At this point if you told me at gunpoint that I had take one of them with the
first pick overall, I would take in this order for 2010:
- P.Manning
- Rivers
- Brees
- Rodgers
The reason I put Aaron Rodgers 4th, is for the “Risk” factor. If I am
spending a high (or top) Draft pick on any player, I want as little risk and as
much reward as possible -- especially if there are similar and “less risky”
options. Rodgers carries the risk that he runs too much. Some less business
savvy fantasy football owners will jump all over Rodgers for the “running
fantasy football points bonus”. It scares me. I don’t want my QB running.
Rodgers was second among all QB’s with 316 yards rushing. Rivers, Manning,
Brady, Brees, they all ranged from a –3 to +43 on the season total rushing.
Running QB’s on the loose are Defensive “big hit” targets – Vince Young,
Donovan McNabb, Jason Campbell, Matt Cassel, David Garrard, all but Garrard
missed time at some point injured in 2009. I can’t have that with a high draft
pick. A top 5 QB, if he misses just one game is instantly the least valuable of
the 5. Rodgers puts himself at risk. Rodgers faces the Jets this season, and has
a little tougher schedule. I see him falling back toward 19.0 points. He is
still an awesome NFL QB, but if the other QB’s can match his scoring without the
injury target – then I’ll take the others.
What if Rodgers stops running to keep himself “safer”? He grabbed 4 fantasy
football PPG just from running the ball (Yards, TD’s) in 2009. Less all the
running fantasy football points then he definitely falls from his 2009 of 21 PPG
toward 18-19. Thus Rodgers drops from a lock # 1 QB overall to closer to # 3-4
just based on scoring.
Brees I have about equal to Rivers, but would take after Rivers due to the
tougher schedule Brees faces. I could flip a coin there.
Peyton Manning has to be your number one overall QB if forced to take a QB
first. Attempts are a lot of this projection, and there is no doubt (barring
injury) that Peyton will be among the leaders in passing attempts again (only
Schaub had more in 2009). When Manning throws, good things happen. They have 2
solid RB’s, a developing receiving core – and potentially a chip on their
shoulder with the (age) “clock ticking”. I don’t see Manning reeling it in for
2010. He also (on our Metrics) has the 2nd easiest schedule of Pass Defenses to
face. Everything I argued about Philip Rivers easy schedule, weather, etc –
Peyton is one step better/easier.
Early projection on PPG in 2010:
19.0 = P.Manning, IND
19.0 = Rivers, SD
19.0 = Brees, NO
18.4 = Rodgers, GB
That doesn’t mean you rush out and take Rivers in the first round of your
fantasy football Draft. It does mean if you are a “Draft your QB early in FF”
fantasy football GM – then you can pass on Rodgers, Manning, Brees in Rounds 1
and 2 and pick up better RB/WR’s instead….popping Rivers later.
Right now Rivers is typically going as the 5th overall QB in most Mock
Drafts/Lists. As we get closer to the season start, savvy fantasy football
owners may see that easy schedule (the NFL version of “strength of schedule”
shows SD as very easy in 2010) and we may see Rivers move up as the # 4 QB
overall in fantasy football Draft lists. I don’t see many that will have the
guts to take Rivers in the top 3 among QB’s. He is going about 30-40th overall
right now from what I see early on early Mock Drafts. If you see the “Big 3” all
go 1st Round, the QB panic sets in and Rivers may jump up into the 2nd Round.
Proclaiming Rivers ahead of Brady is sure to raise some eyebrows. Proclaiming
Rivers ahead of Rodgers will fill my email inbox. I want to win my fantasy
football leagues. I am a businessman first. I not only have the eyeball test,
and statistical analysis – I also have to take risk assessment into
consideration. The business move is to let someone else scarf Rodgers in Round
1, and you potentially get the same QB scoring value in the 3rd Round with
Rivers. That’s good business.
Should QB’s be taken that early in an fantasy football Draft? That’s a
whole separate argument. I will be addressing the Metrics on that before the
season begins.
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