Fantasy Football GM’s tend to be in two camps on the “elite” QB’s:
Camp 1: Pass on the first wave of “elite” (FF) QB’s (P.Manning, Brees, Rodgers). Letting them go early on -- in the first two rounds of the draft to others. Content to grab one of the next tier of good QB’s (Rivers, Brady, Romo, Schaub, etc) in the 3-4-5th Rounds.
Camp 2: Grab the “elite” QB early.
Whichever your preferred game plan, or
depending upon what way the draft board starts to fall, I see one QB wedged into
the middle of these two QB draft “theories” – and that’s Tom Brady.
I am seeing Brady jump up in/ahead of the “Big
3” (P.Manning, Brees, Rodgers) occasionally in Mock Drafts. Even more then that,
Brady seems to be the first QB off the board after the “Big 3”. But should he?
Should Brady go higher – up with the “Big 3”,
or dropping down lower than Rivers, Romo, Schaub…? It’s a big decision when you
look at the Top 10 scoring QB’s from 2009, and translate that to the 2010 draft.
Big Ben drops out of the mix of top 10 now, McNabb is “shaky” with a lesser
skill positioned team, and Favre – who knows? The 2010 QB class is, possibly, a
lot “thinner” than usual. Getting 1 of the top 7 QB’s is going to be an
important 2010 draft issue in a 10-Team league and especially in a 12-Team
league.
Last season Brady fared pretty well. Ranking
7th in scoring among all QB’s. He was a good 2-4pts behind the “Big 3”, but
fractionally away from being the 4th best QB – fractionally close to be the 10th
as well. The 2009 fantasy football QB grouping from 4th-10th best in scoring is essentially
equal.
2009 fantasy football QB Scoring per game (Games 1-15)
Will Brady score at or above his 17 point per
game performance in 2009? I think not. Why that is an important debate is – if
Brady is going to put up a 14-15 point per game season, he may not even be
“starter” worthy in a 10-Team league, or a bottom tier starting QB in a 12-Team
league. You can’t take the 10-12th best fantasy football QB in the first 3 rounds of 2010
draft. If Brady is going to have a 17-19 point per game average – and he is a
solid top 5 QB, maybe top 3. So which way does it go? I’m taking the “under”,
and here’s why:
- Tom Brady had an “overrated” 2009
Season
- Available weapon issues
- A brutal 2010 schedule weakens Brady’s
performance, puts him at injury “risk”
Let me explain...
Tom Brady had an “overrated” 2010 Season
I know that sounds weird but let’s examine
Brady’s 2009 season.
It starts with a 5 game run to begin the season
scoring 15.4 points a game. Which is good, but not worthy of an early pick in a
draft.
Game # 6 -- Brady goes off as the Pats rub it
in on the Titans, with Brady dropping 39 fantasy football points due in part to his amazing 6
passing TD’s. It was not a shoot-out game; it was a humiliation (59-0). No
reason for Brady to be in that game late still throwing TD’s. But he did. That
game set off a nice 5 game run of 15-20+ point efforts. Two 20+ point games
against hapless teams – the Titans (were 0-5 at the time) and the Bucs. He also
had a nice 20+ on the Colts.
A Week 12 embarrassment to the Saints started a
4 game, lowly 11.2 scoring run, before wrapping up with a 27 point effort
against the Jags.
Take out the 39 point event against the Titans,
and Brady has a 15.8 fantasy football scoring avg in 2009. So if you had Brady in 2009, you
won your Week 6 by a mile. How much better was he than all the other QB’s the
rest of the season – really not better, and likely not top 10.
Which that’s cute math to do, but can you
really count on a 59-0 game, with 6 passing TD’s in 2010 (or ever)? Maybe, but
probably not. This is more meant to show that with exception of the Titans game,
Brady was (dare I say?) more “pedestrian” in 2009?
2009 fantasy football QB Scoring per game (Games 1-15) MINUS
their single best fantasy football Scoring Game of 2009:
-
20.1 =
Rodgers, GB
-
18.4 =
P.Manning, IND
-
18.3 =
Brees, NO
-
16.9 =
Rivers, SD
-
16.7 =
McNabb, PA/WAS
-
16.6 =
Favre, MIN
-
16.3 =
Roethlisberger, PIT
-
16.2 =
Schaub, HOU
-
16.2 =
Romo, DAL
-
15.8 =
Brady, NE (now drops to # 10 overall)
-
14.6 =
Warner, K
Maybe you think that’s not a fair
comparison/math. How about analyzing strength by measuring weakness?....a tally
of the number of games a QB scored UNDER 10 fantasy football points in 2009 – would you say
that is a sign of “weakness”? How about games UNDER 7 fantasy football points in 2009 – would
that be a sign of “weakness”?
Let’s compare the TOP (not journeymen or
rookies) 11 QB’s (all listed above) in “low scoring” in Games 1-15:
# of Games QB under 10.0 fantasy football pts # of Games
under 7.0 fantasy football pts
-
4 =
Brady, NE (5 if you add in Game 16) 2 = Brady, NE (3 if you add in game 16)
-
3 =
Favre, GB 2 = Schaub, HOU
-
3 =
Warner, ARI 1 = 7 QB’s tied
-
3 =
Romo, DAL 0 = 2 QB’s tied (Rivers, Favre)
Brady had 1 incredible game, a few great ones
and the most (among the better QB’s) “weak” games. Is Brady slowing down? Are
the Pats in general slowing down?
Available weapon issues in 2010 for Brady
2007 was an unreal season for Tom Brady -- over
23 fantasy football points per game, and an undefeated regular season. Before the 2007 season,
Brady had been a 14-15 point per game fantasy football QB. Brady scored 17+ in 2009, but again
it was just 15.8 without the huge crazy Titans game…and drops to 15 if you add
the finale against the Texans (he played about 75% of the game and scored 5 fantasy football
points.). Brady may be closer to a 15 point a game QB than a 17-18 point a game
QB in reality.
With that, is Randy Moss getting any better, or
has he “peaked” (now age 33)? Julian Edelman may be fine, but Wes Welker and
Brady did have “something working together”. Welker missed 2 games during the
season, as well as the playoff debacle. What would a season without Welker be
like for Brady?
Tom Brady fantasy football scoring (Games 1-15 + playoff
game):
What about Randy Moss’s “mental state”, we
started to see signs in 2009 that it might be “over”. Imagine a season with only
some/no Wes Welker, and Randy Moss goes off the deep end? (Brady fantasy football scoring in
games Moss “took off”, Moss with 2 catches or less, was 14.1). What if the Pats
are out of the playoff picture by Week 9-10, possible this 2010 season in the
AFC East? How hard are Moss and the gang going to work?
Quick – name another Pats WR besides Randy Moss
or Wes Welker? A weak running game mixed with an aging, injured (and
temperamental), lack of depth receiving core is not a good formula for an
“elite” season about to take place. They did sign 33-year-old Tory Holt and
32-year-old Alge Crumpler to bolster(?) the passing game?
If you don’t buy argument points 1 and 2 above,
and you still see Brady more as a 17-18 point per game fantasy football QB, and not a 15 per
game. The worst issue Brady is facing is to come……
A brutal 2010 schedule weakens Brady’s
performance, puts him at injury “risk”
The season begins against the Bengals and their
excellent CB’s/Defense, then onto the road against the Jets. First 2 games of
the season, and Brady may struggle to pull a 10 fantasy football point game performance right
off the bat in 2010. For extra punishment Brady also sees the Ravens (Week 6),
the Vikings (Week 8), and the improving Dolphins (Week 4).
Even worse is the stretch run for 2010 (Week
10-16), as the cold weather hits the Pats don’t luck out too much with
indoor/warm weather games….or many cupcakes.
If the North/Northeast goes
cold/very cold in mid November, here is Brady’s “cold” gauntlet:
-
Nov 14
= @ Pittsburgh…could be cold
-
Nov 21
= Indy (at cold NE ?)
-
Nov 25
= @ Detroit (indoors, but Thanksgiving – will the Lions rise up?)
-
Dec 6 =
NY Jets (at cold NE)
-
Dec 12
= @ Chicago…brrrr
-
Dec 19
= Green Bay (at cold NE?)
-
Dec 26
= @ Buffalo…double brrrr
Last season Brady’s Week 10-16 run had 3 actual
“cold” weather games in which Brady scored 14.4 fantasy football points per game, but 2 of 3
games he had under 10 fantasy football points. QB’s (including Peyton Manning) will readily
admit they “hate” playing in “cold” weather. In 2010 for Brady, it may be at
least 4 very cold weather games down the stretch, possibly 6 of 7 in the key fantasy football
time period – and during the fantasy football playoffs (should you get there).
QB’s (good/great starting QB’s, exclude low
tier/journeyman QB starts) vs weather in ’09:
-
16.1 =
in a dome
-
15.3 =
when its “warm”
-
15.1 =
all conditions
-
14.3 =
“ok”/cool
-
14.2 =
“cold”
Cold is bad. Knocks a point (average) off.
Weather issues are one hurdle for a QB. Getting “rocked” in the pocket is
another. The Pats have the top 3 Sack Defenses for 2009 on the 2010 schedule a
total of 4 times (Miami twice). The Jets weren’t a top sack team in 2009. Do you
think they might come after Brady more with the bolstered CB situation? They
only sacked Brady twice in ’09, but hit him about a million times as he
released. The two Jets game this year may be the most punishing of all. Don’t
forget attacking defenses like the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals also sit on the
schedule.
I think Brady is going to be under duress all
2010, and he showed he wasn’t handling pressure as well in 2009 coming off the
’08 injury/surgery. If he does get protection he will be facing many of the top
pass defenses in the league, with a possible eroding/missing receiving core, and
later on in the schedule he will be battling it all in (possibly) non-ideal
weather conditions for QB’s and WR’s.
This could be the weakest season for the Pats
in many years, and even if Belichick works more magic -- Brady has a ton of
hurdles to overcome to put “elite” fantasy football QB points on the board in 2010. Let
someone else pull him early in the 2010 draft. There will likely be 7-10+ QB’s
available who will outscore him this year. Much better QB values out there for a
draft value proposition.
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