For most leagues, there are 3 regular season Fantasy games left followed by (hopefully) Week 15 & 16 playoff games. Eleven weeks into the season and past the Bye weeks, most Fantasy GMs have settled/landed on their Fantasy Defense(s) for the rest of 2010. Those with Steelers, Eagles or the Packers (for example) may be comfortable, but just about no one else can say "hey, I have my Fantasy defense for the stretch and playoffs...no worries here".

Fantasy Defense is so schedule/opponent/situational driven, you can go almost week-to-week hopping around different defenses (regardless of their talent) and be just as well off as someone who has a Steelers or Packers. I recommend for my clients to be very fluid on what 2 defenses they have (and I am a major proponent of holding 2 defenses), playing one-step ahead based on schedule and skill of the defense...but moreover the schedule. I would rather have the Jaguars defense against the Panthers (and Brian St.Pierre or Jimmy Claussen), then I would the Steelers facing the Patriots or Colts or Texans or Falcons or Broncos or....you understand. I fear high attempt offenses and elite QBs, I love rookie and lower-lever QBs for my defense to face. I want a higher probability of turnovers...which lead to Fantasy points.

With 3-5 games to go, many are wondering what Fantasy defenses are best down the stretch. I am going to examine this by looking at metrics determining skilled, or pathetic, defenses...then using that to matchup to the remaining schedule (looking for lower-level QB matchups), to determine who are the best Fantasy defense plays out there. I'm going to concentrate on defenses likely available. For me to say "hey, Green Bay is a great play!"...well they are not available, so who cares. You/we need to know slick defensive plays that are obtainable. I hope you enjoy this journey....

To break this down, we need to examine this in 4 stages:

1) What Defenses are worth considering the rest of 2010, or more to the point which ones can we just throw out of consideration as they are so bad it doesn't matter what the circumstances are -- you would never take/pick them up.

2) What Offenses/QBs do you want to stay away from at all costs?

3) What Offenses/QBs (for your Fantasy Defense to face) are the highest probability of turnovers, shutouts, low scoring, etc for biggest possible Fantasy returns?

4) Matching up viable Fantasy Defenses with the schedule of best (worst) Offenses to face that could produce the biggest returns.

 

1) Defenses you should not be using, ever....

After 11 weeks of data, we have a decent amount of info to go on that the body of work starts to speak for itself. I look at 2 key performance metrics to try decide if a defense is really "bad", then compare that with the lowest scoring Fantasy defenses. The 2 key performance metrics are, (1) Fantasy scoring PPG by the QBs, given up by the Defense...to judge the effectiveness of the defense and (2) RB's who have 10+ carries in the game, their Fantasy PPG scoring vs. a defense. I am going to lay the QB Fantasy scoring PPG, with the 10+ carry RB Fantasy scoring PPG and the Team Defense Fantasy scoring per game to see what defense ring up on some all of the 3 lists.

Just looking at Fantasy scoring per game of a Defense, may not be enough...it was just a few weeks ago that the Baltimore Ravens were a bottom-10 Fantasy scoring defense, but there were (obvious) signs that the Ravens were not a bottom-10 defense. Let's lineup the bottom 10 Defenses in these 3 categories:

The 10 Worst Fantasy PPG Defenses YTD:

1. 2.1 = DEN
2. 2.7 = BUF
3. 2.8 = HOU
4. 3.3 = JAC
5. 4.5 = MIN
6. 4.8 = CIN
7. 4.9 = DAL
8. 5.0 = CAR
9. 5.9 = KC
10. 6.0 = WAS    

Minnesota is probably a bit of a shock, but like the aforementioned Ravens, that's probably not a sign of their true ability...and you will see that when they don't appear anywhere near the below lists. KC is a bit of a head fake as well, they have internals better than this. The rest of the list is likely not a shock to anyone. You may think Dallas might be better without Wade Phillips, but the internals show some improvement; but a lot of signs of the same ole', same ole'.

The 10 Worst Defenses by QB Fantasy PPG allowed (avg of all QBs Fantasy score facing the particular defense):

1. 22.5 = HOU
2. 18.4 = WAS
3. 18.4 = JAC
4. 18.4 = DAL
5. 18.3 = DEN
6. 18.2 = NE
7. 17.4 = OAK
8. 16.5 = BUF
9. 16.5 = SEA
10. 15.8 = CLE

You will see a lot of the same teams on this list as with the overall worst Fantasy scoring (above). NE may be a bit of a shock, but they have been bad against the pass (good/great on the run) for 2 years running now. OAK has scored a lot of defensive TDs to help keep them off the bottom 10 overall Fantasy scorers, but their internals on what QBs (above) and RBs (below) do against them, are worse than their overall Fantasy scoring would lead you to believe.

   The 10 Worst Defenses by 10+ carry RB Fantasy PPG allowed (average of all RBs who have carried the ball 10 or more times against them in 2010):

1. 18.2 = DET (5.2 ypc allowed)
2. 17.7 = ARI (4.6)
3. 17.7 = DEN (4.3)
4. 16.4 = IND (5.0)
5. 15.4 = TB (5.4)
6. 14.5 = OAK (4.6)
7. 14.3 = CIN (4.5)
8. 14.3 = JAC (4.4)
9. 14.1 = SD (4.1)
10. 14.0 = DAL (4.7)
11. 13.5 = WAS (5.4)
12. 12.8 = BUF (4.9)

WAS and BUF are forced onto this list because of their high yards per carry allowed, they need to be considered as "bad" with their awful YPC allowed.

When you look at the 3 lists, there are some defenses you have to throw out as no matter who they are matched up with -- Fantasy success is not likely and/or they are going to make bad QBs and RBs look good and good QBs and RBs are going to destroy them. The Defenses that should never be considered for a long stretch are:

1. Denver
2. Buffalo
3. Washington
4. Jacksonville
5. Dallas
6. Oakland

Again, I know Oakland may be a bit of a shock when you look at a Fantasy ranking, they would be near the Top-10 best YTD depending upon the scoring system used. In reality, Oakland gives up great Fantasy games to QBs, and RBs with 10+ carries are rolling all over them too. I wouldn't count on two blocked punt TDs (like they did vs. SD) in a game any time again soon.

The rest of the 26 NFL Defenses, for better or worse, can still be considered for a stretch depending upon the opponent.

2) Stay away from these QBs with your Fantasy Defense!

When I look at all the NFL QBs, and their YTD stats, there are 13 QBs/teams that when you face them -- statistically you are not likely to see an interception, as well as they are going to rack up real game points against your Fantasy defense. The teams and QBs are (in no particular order):

1. Vick, PHI = 11 TD/0 INT on the season, Fantasy defenses score just 4.5 Fantasy points against this team/QB
2. Rivers, SD = 21/8, 6.5
3. Ryan, ATL = 18/5, 4.3
4. Flacco, BAL = 16/7, 4.5
5. Orton, DEN = 17/6, 5.9
6. Rodgers, GB = 19/9, 4.8
7. Schaub, HOU = 13/7, 4.9
8. Manning, IND = 20/7, 2.8
9. Cassel, KC = 18/4, 2.9
10. Brady, NE = 19/4, 1.7
11. Sanchez, NYJ = 15/7, 4.2
12. Roethlisberger, PIT = 12/4, 5.1
13. Freeman, TB = 14/5, 6.0

The group of 13 QBs above have 213 TDs to 73 INTs, and Fantasy defenses have scored an average of only 4.5 Fantasy points per game against these QBs/teams.

 

3) Play defenses that are facing these QBs

The complete opposite of the QB group above is this following group. Teams who have QBs who allow near as many or more INTs as they do throw for TDs, as well Fantasy defenses score much higher against these teams/QBs. The teams/QBs you want your Fantasy defense to face are (in no particular order):

1. Anderson/Hall, ARI = 8 TDs/12 INTs, Fantasy defenses score 11.0 Fantasy points against this team/QB
2. Moore, Claussen, Pike/St. Pierre, CAR = 7/16, 12.9
3. McCoy, Delhomme, Wallace, CLE = 8/9, 7.3
4. Henne/Thigpen, MIA = 10/12, 8.0
5. Campbell/Gradkowski, OAK = 11/11, 6.9
6. R.Smith/Collins, TEN = now on the list despite lack of stats, we can assume it will not be good
7. McNabb, WAS = 10/12, 7.7
8. Cutler, CHI = 12/10, 9.3
9. Favre, MIN = 10/17, 10.8
10. Smith's, SF = 11/10, 9.5

This group of 10 QBs has combined for 87 TDs to 109 INTs, and Fantasy defenses have scored an average of 8.2 Fantasy points per game against these QBs/teams.

QBs not on either list are mostly QBs who have been up and down with high INTs, but decent TDs thrown and Fantasy Defense average somewhere in-between the two above groups. The pattern on Fitzgerald, Palmer, Kitna, S.Hill, Brees, Eli, Hasselbeck, Bradford are erratic and hard to predict. Better defenses like Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Philadelphia may fair well where Buffalo, Jacksonville, Denver would get torched by them. Facing OK defenses like the Chargers or Buccaneers, you never know what you will get facing these middle-tier QBs.

 

4) The best combined talent of defense and schedule of opponents for the rest of the season

One of the unusual things about this analysis...there is no Home Run, clear cut, perfect schedule matched with good defense (that would be available still). Usually 1 or 2 just have a perfect scenario stretch to project to the finish, not this year. The best defenses I can recommend are based on all the internals of data through Week-11, based on schedule, Fantasy points allowed to QBs and Fantasy points allowed to RBs who carry the ball 10+ times against them.

The defenses that are possibly available that have the best scenarios based on schedule and talent are as follows:

MIAMI DOLPHINS (OAK/CLE/NYJ/BUF/DET)

There are no elite QBs on the Miami schedule, the closest thing would be Mark Sanchez, but that is borderline. The Jets game is the worst of the 5 plays. The Jets did torch Miami for 31 points earlier this season. The Jets are not notoriously a high octane offense...but they are not turnover prone offense, which is not good to try to get Fantasy points.

Buffalo and Detroit at the end could be a bit scary, they are high flying offenses this year, but both QBs are prone to turnovers with the high pass attempts offenses. They have BUF and DET at home, which keeps their passing game a risk, but MIA should be scrapping for a wild card and Miami is a very good defense, not likely to be a pushover. If MIA drops out of the race, then this is a bad play with BUF and DET in warm weather.

Miami is 6th best allowing Fantasy points to opposing QBs with 12.3 PPG allowed.

Miami is mediocre against the run, allowing an 18th best 13.4 FF Trad PPG to RBs who have 10+ carries against them.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (CAR/MIA/BUF/CIN/BAL)

The next 4 week stretch is really favorable, leading up to the Week-16 with BAL. Cleveland has quietly moved up to the #13 ranked overall PPG Fantasy defense. Recently stymieing the Patriots offenses with just 14 offense points allowed, 7 of those in in garbage time. The Rob Ryan led defense is starting to show signs of a breakout.

Week 13-15 is all away with MIA/BUF/CIN, 2 of those will be colder weather...better for turnovers and/or slowing down high pass attempt offenses like CIN and BUF. Despite the fat that the Browns season is essentially over, they have been playing hard and that is typical of a Rob Ryan led defense...it's a risk, but I lean towards they play hard the rest of the way.

Cleveland is 20th in allowing Fantasy points to opposing QBs with 15.8 PPG allowed.

Cleveland is 8th best overall in FF Trad PPG allowed to RBs with 10+ carries, at 11.2 PPG.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (IND, OAK, KC, SF, CIN)

Obviously you don't want to play Week-12 with them facing Indy. The beauty of that is, the Chargers-D was likely dropped a few weeks ago and they are sitting available now...you can get them now and avoid any conflict to pick them up later.

OAK has been an offensive mess with the exception of a 2-3 game stretch. KC is not a great matchup, Matt Cassel hasn't been turnover prone at all this season. The SF-CIN Week 15-16 matchup is where the strength of this play lies, the Fantasy playoffs vs. a 49ers team that me be out of the race and a very turnover prone Bengals team. A Bengals team that could have Jordan Palmer at the helm.

The Chargers have actually been a decent Fantasy defense all year, currently the #8 ranked PPG Fantasy defense this season. Most of that built on a huge Fantasy games against ARI (27 pts) and JAC (16 pts). The Chargers lead the league in sacks YTD. The Chargers will also be fighting for the playoffs the rest of the season, so no let down expected.

San Diego is the 2nd best Fantasy-D (only CHI is better) in allowing just 9.2 FF PPG to opposing QBs this season.

San Diego is 21st in Trad PPG allowed to RBs with 10+ carries against them at 14.1 PPG.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (WAS, BUF, NYG, CHI, PHI)

Four great matchups in a row upcoming, with the BUF/NYG/CHI as a 3 game home stand wedged in there. A renewed vigor with Leslie Frazier as head coach, a talented enough defense facing turnover prone QBs. The NYG game could be sketchy, but likely it will be as Hakeem Nicks and/or Steve Smith is coming back...but possibly still out. Regardless, Eli is turnover prone.

That final Fantasy playoff/Super Bowl week matchup with PHI is the dicey part, it would obviously be best to have a secondary plan for that.

Minnesota is 16th best in FF PPG allowed to opposing QBs at 15.2 PPG.

Minnesota is the 6th best in allowing FF Trad PPG to opposing RBs with 10+ carries at 10.4 PPG.

 

**If you wanted to pair up 2 of these defenses to make a "super-defense", I would use SD as the back-half lock with SF/CIN in the Fantasy playoffs. leading up to that, CLE has the best run up to that with CAR, MIA, BUF.

                                              

 

 

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