One of the ways Dictionary.com defines audacity is, "daring, with arrogant disregard for personal safety". One of the listed synonyms is "foolhardiness". All things that come to my mind when looking at Terrelle Pryor's prospects as an NFL QB. We will look at the WR possibilities as well, but first let's analyze him as a QB.

There is nothing we see in any of our statistical analysis and metrics, which point us toward Pryor as even a capable NFL QB; nor have we seen anything on tape which made us think different on what the passing metrics and grades were showing in our system.

Let's just get the "watching on tape" part of the discussion on the table, and I never trust my eyes first...I trust numbers. However, watching Pryor play at Ohio State, (to me) anyone could see him as an inaccurate, run first QB, who was constantly uncomfortable in the pocket. Pryor is a flimsy passer, and he is also nothing like a Cam Newton or Tim Tebow as a unique runner either. The thing that jumps out watching him run in college, is he goes down way too easy on contact. I have never watched Terrelle Pryor and been "amazed" or "dazzled", he is a typical athletic college QB that is a runner and not a elite decision making QB. For me, he cannot hold a candle (watching them on tape) to other big-conference running QBs like Tebow, Newton, Vince Young or even Matt Jones (hey, I get to mention Matt Jones in 2011). That's just my eye-ball test, I'd rather look at the proof in the numbers...

Overall in 2010, Pryor's stats on the surface seem pretty respectable -- 65.0% Completion Percentage, 27 TDs and 11 INTs. Not all that bad, but when you break Pryor's season into pieces...the (bad) truth rises to the surface.

Pryor has a degeneration of his passing metrics in our system, when we start throwing out the games against weaker competition and focus on his statistics against stronger competition. We see this over and over again in our computer analysis with the running QBs like Tebow, V. Young, and 2011 draftee Colin Kaepernick -- their efficiency goes down sharply as the competition goes up, as well their overall passing attempts decline as well. The lower passing attempts in games versus rougher competition seems to be a red-flag in our system...our theory (and it just a theory, but the numbers don't lie), either their coaches know the issues and pull back the reigns on the QB/game plan versus the bigger opponents, and/or the QB knows it subconsciously...struggling to read and succeed against the better college defenses, and thus relying more on what he really inherently trusts -- their running skills over their passing skills.

In various stages below, you will see that when we pull apart Pryor's performance this past year -- his performance becomes very troubling against stiffer competition, as well these metrics are all kinds of red-flags in our statistical analysis...numbers that match other historical future QB "flame outs" in the NFL.

 

Pryor vs. "Little Sister's of the Poor"

Three of Pryor's 13 games in 2010, came against non-conference opponents whose athletes pale in comparison to the athletes at Ohio State. I don't begrudge OSU (or any college) scheduling "tune-up" games, but at the same time please don't factor them in as "serious" games for an evaluation of an OSU prospect as a fair judge of their talent/performance abilities...especially at the QB position. 

As you will quickly see below, Pryor stomped on OSU's 3 weaker non-conference foes...as he should have. One of Chris Rock's great takes on people justifying various behaviors and accomplishments is when Rock comments about people who say things like, "well, at least I've never been to jail"...Rock's response is "What do you want, a cookie? You're not supposed to go to jail, you low-expectation having _____ (edit)". If you play at Ohio State, and you are facing Marshall, Ohio, and Eastern Michigan...you are supposed to have big stats.

Todd Boeckman (OSU QB prior to Pryor), as a starter in 2007, faced Youngstown State, Akron, and Kent State as part of their schedule. Boeckman's stats in those 3 games -- 71.0% Completion Percentage, 6 TDs and 2 INTs. These 3 games below for Pryor are indicative of nothing, besides statistically "fluffing" the overall picture...much like taking Basket Weaving in college to pump your GPA.

 

Pryor vs. the weaker Big-10 schools in 2010:

Pryor was also lucky enough to have the 3 worst teams in the Big-10 on his schedule in 2010 -- Purdue (4-8), Minnesota (3-9), and Indiana (5-7). Combined those 3 teams beat a total of 3 teams all year from a power conference/had a winning record.

In no way, shape, or form could any of these 3 teams bottom-feeding Big-10 teams compete with Ohio State...and in 2010 they didn't, all losing to Ohio State by a combined 139-20 score. I'm not thinking that these 3 matchups tell me a whole lot about Terrelle Pryor's QB ability at the next level either. As you will see below -- Pryor stomped all 3 of them statistically.

 

Pryor vs. teams with a winning record in 2010:

Now we get serious, and now Terrelle Pryor fades from the statistical elite. A couple things to notice:

1. Below is Pryor's performance against the "winning teams" he faced in 2010, and it is a pretty weak collection. Miami, Illinois, Penn State, and Michigan were all (7-6), and Iowa was in a bit of a down year at (8-5).

2. Arkansas was a Top-10 Bowl team, but more highly rated on the back of a high-powered offense...not highly rated because of a sturdy defense (Arkansas allowed 30.3 PPG in SEC play, gave up 31 to OSU).

3. Wisconsin was the only serious competition on the schedule...and you can see it was Pryor's worse game of his season.

If we isolated this list down to just the best athletes and best coaches, with a defensive slant -- Miami, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Iowa were the 4 most "NFL-like" teams Pryor faced. Pryor's totals in those 4 isolated games = 51.4% Completion Percentage, 4 TDs and 4 INTs.

 

How does Pryor fare against other Big-10 NFL Draft eligible/regarded QBs in 2011?

Perhaps you think "all QBs are going to have their stats/performance fall against tougher teams...maybe this is normal?". That is not true, and the "good ones" don't have their stats/performance fall as hard as Pryor's numbers did against tougher competition. Many of the future NFL elite QBs, kept their performance levels the same...or actually increased them against the stronger opposition.

Below are 3 Big-10 NFL Draft rated prospective QBs for 2011, with their 2010 stats against only Big-10 teams with a winning record (no Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, or any non-conference). One of these QB's performance actually increased as the competition level was increased (Stanzi).

Pryor is last/worst in every nearly every performance metric category vs. Iowa's Ricky Stanzi (5th Round Draft pick in 2011) and Wisconsin's Scott Tolzien (undrafted in 2011, but will get a shot with someone). Being the 3rd best out of 3 isn't bad if everyone among the 3 all had great stats, it's just that Pryor has troubling/red-flag performance metrics levels in this snapshot -- less than 60% Comp Pct, and nearly an INT for every TD.

 

NFL QB that Terrelle Pryor most compares to statistically/physically in our system...

Looking at taller, more inaccurate QBs on the completion percentage side as well as more tendency toward INTs -- Derek Anderson is a near match as a passer. Obviously, Pryor brings more to the table as an athlete...but we are just looking at passing metrics here.

• "Adj" means just key games/better competition -- weighted for strength of opponent (our own proprietary work)

• "per 35 att" numbers are the key games, weighted for strength of opponent and then translated into an average as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts per game all the time, and thus what would each QB produce (in college) if they had 35 passes per game based on the key games their final college season. In an attempt to somewhat equalize the college performance and show you what our systems sees.

QB	Yr	College	H	W	adj Comp Pct	Adj Yds per Comp	adj Pass per TD	adj Pass Per INT	x	Yds per game 35 Att	TDs per game 35 Att	INTs per game 35 Att
Pryor, Terrelle	2010	Ohio State	76.5	240	56.2%	12.9	21.0	26.2		254.5	1.7	1.3
Anderson, Derek	2005	Oregon State	78.1	242	49.5%	12.9	20.6	26.9		223.0	1.7	1.3
O'Connell, Kevin	2007	SD State	77.0	225	60.6%	10.5	56.3	46.4		222.3	0.6	0.8

 

Terrelle Pryor Overall Score = +0.148   *See original work and scoring tables from the following link -- Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

 

2011 NFL Supplemental Draft Projections...

I cannot believe that anyone will draft Pryor as a QB prospect for the NFL, but I can't believe a lot of things that happen in the NFL with some of the lower-tier organizations. This is a pick that screams of Oakland or Cincinnati.

However, there is another angle in play -- Terrelle Pryor the WR prospect. Pryor at 6'4+ and 240 pounds, with good speed and strength, is an awesome WR prospect purely based on his amazing physical measureables. On that basis, and that basis alone, Pryor is worth burning a late to mid-round draft pick in the 2011 Supplemental Draft. However, Pryor's character is so tarnished...and I've seen interviews with him over the past 3 years, and I think that behind-the-scenes he is more frightening than many perceive (psychologically) -- all this leads to a likely limited amount of suitors willing to take on the risk. Bringing the WR aspect into it along with a willingness to overlook the character issues -- I could see Tampa Bay, Seattle or Minnesota entering the picture as possible landing spots.

No matter what happens with Pryor, we see little chance of him succeeding as a NFL QB according to our statistical analysis. The WR aspect, a mild intrigue. What I personally think we are looking at is a Matt Jones 2.0 (Arkansas elite running QB, turned WR for the NFL Draft, struggled in the NFL, and had major issues off-the-field).

Given the off-field issues, work ethic and decision making issues Pryor has exhibited -- If I ran an NFL team, I would think I could find a bunch of tall, athletic WRs to gamble on in any given year mid-NFL Draft...without all the drama. For Fantasy Football 2011, I have zero interest. For a Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie Drafts, almost no interest in a gamble with him becoming a competent NFL WR (or QB).

*Our 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Guide is complete and will be on sale very soon. Our guide analyzes 500+ NFL players and recent draftees for a 2011 Fantasy Football perspective. It is also an excellent resource to learn about (and refer back to during the season) many lesser discussed NFL players that we think may have an bigger impact in 2011 -- such as Andre Roberts, Clay Harbor, and Allen Bradford...just to name a few. Our guide is a one-time purchase, with constant free/easy 1-click download updates throughout the season as player/team situations change (trades, injuries, etc). We project players based on traditional scoring, as well as PPR and give 6 different options to view the reports...as well as providing a cheat sheet listing with projected scoring. Please see our home page for Draft Guide samples and sale prices.

 

 

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